Since Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the breakaway republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, in what was considered the “most dangerous speech of the post-Cold War”, the war between the Asian giant and the former the soviet republic did not take long to move from an imminent conflict to a concrete reality.
This Thursday (24), Kiev and other Ukrainian cities dawned under shelling and sirens that heralded the beginning of the Russian invasion. International leaders, representatives of security organizations, analysts and researchers are working hard to understand, explain and respond to the Russian nonsense at the time, while the populations of countries directly or indirectly involved in the situation wonder if they are, after all, facing the trigger of a third party. World War.
Given the multipolar nature of the conflict – which, on the one hand, counts on the rejection of Western countries and, on the other, on the tacit consent of China and other dictatorships – the escalation of tensions depends on a series of factors.
For political scientist Márcio Coimbra, former director of Apex and postgraduate coordinator at Mackenzie Brasília, the expansion of the war at an international level is unlikely in the short term.
“As Ukraine is not part of NATO and European leaders are very afraid of a war, I think the tendency is to let the country be taken over by Russia to avoid a major conflict”, explained the expert, who compared the scenario. with the Munich Accords on the eve of World War II, when Czechoslovakia was ceded to Nazi Germany.
“Another possibility is that Putin tries to turn Ukraine into a Belarus. He can put a ‘ghost’ government, completely controlled by Moscow. NATO. I think he’s smart enough not to rush that way”, assesses Coimbra.
For political scientist Késsio Lemos, a researcher at INCT-INEU, the war should only reach international proportions if Russia does not contain Ukraine.
“NATO has just spoken out and said that it will not send military forces to Ukraine. Therefore, the country is alone from a direct military point of view. The support of the West will be through very heavy sanctions and offering some kind of support for Ukraine resist, which is unlikely. If there is an event that directly affects a NATO country, then we have a possibility of escalation at a global level”, explains Lemos.
What should really weigh in the balance of the conflict, however, is China’s stance. “The big problem in all this is that, if there is not a great consistent international mobilization, a great corridor of opportunities opens up for China to attack Taiwan. very well laid out plans for this invasion”, completes Coimbra.
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