Italy, the specter of stagnation. This is what would happen due to out-of-control public debt
The government Melons is working on the budget maneuver, a complicated task given all the needs that the country has, but as is known the state coffers are empty and at least 30 billion would be needed to be able to keep the electoral promises made. To further complicate things, the GDP forecasts of the 27 EU countries and for Italy there is no good news. Those forecasts – we read in Il Corriere della Sera – above all represent the reflection of widespread judgment at a given moment on a country and, consequently, its direction of travel. Nothing more. The analysis published yesterday by the Commission presents however a peculiarity. Growth in Italy it doesn’t just slow down compared to last year and also to what was imagined for 2023 six months ago: this happens to almost all countries and to Europe in general; above all – an almost unique case – now Brussels predicts that Italy will continue to slow down in 2024.
The only other similar case is the Spain, but at dynamism rates much higher than ours. In Italy, however, the gross domestic product seems to grow by just 0.9% this year and 0.8% next year, when the euro area instead should accelerate (including the Germany, which is in recession this year). Although the forecasts – continues Il Corriere – do not always prove to be accurate, the direction of travel indicated for Italy makes you think. AND raises questions for the upcoming budget laweven more so if Brussels’ forecasts on Italian weakness are combined with those of the government itself in the latest Economic and Financial Document.
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