The European Commission foresees that the impact of the end of Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine from January 1, 2025 to be “limited” in the security of supply in the European Union, which is “prepared” to provide supply through alternative routes to the most affected countries, such as Austria and Slovakia, community sources assured EFE this Saturday.
“The impact of the end of transit through Ukraine on the security of EU supply is limited,” sources from the Community Executive maintained, since lThe interruption of the flow through Ukrainian territory decided by kyiv was “foreseen.”
However, Austria and Slovakia will be the “most affected” member states, since Russian gas represents approximately 60% of its demand, according to sources. But they assured that they will receive supply through alternative means.
Ukraine will interrupt the transit of Russian gas at 06:00 GMT on January 1 and it will not allow the transit of Russian gas through its territory even if it is first sold to another country, such as Azerbaijan, and then to European companies.
The cut will take place at the end of the contract existing since December 30, 2019 between the Russian Gazprom and the Ukrainian Naftogaz Ukrainy and Ukraine’s refusal to negotiate a new one that allows Russia to profit to finance the war large-scale that began at the end of February 2022.
This agreement, which concludes on December 31, was facilitated by Brussels with the aim of guaranteeing a stable framework and putting an end to arbitration cases that lasted for years between Russian and Ukrainian gas companies.
Given kyiv’s refusal, the European Commission, in coordination with the Member States, has “more than a year working specifically on preparing a scenario in which Russian gas does not transit through Ukraine from January 1, 2025 and in guaranteeing the availability of alternative supplies for the affected Member States,” community sources maintained.
This preparatory work was led by the Directorate General for Energy of the European Commission in collaboration especially with Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The sources added that European gas infrastructure is “flexible enough to provide gas of non-Russian origin to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe through alternative routes.
The EU has reinforced its gas supply architecture “with significant new LNG (liquefied natural gas) import capacities from 2022” and “with energy efficiency measures and the development of renewable energies,” they stressed.
The situation this winter “seems reassuring”
In a report, Brussels concluded that the EU is “well prepared” to face the new situation, as the gas supply security framework “has been significantly strengthened” in recent years with gas tank filling targets, energy efficiency measures, the deployment of renewable energy and voluntary demand reduction measures.
As a result, security of EU gas supply this winter “seems reassuring”, as demand remains 18% below pre-crisis levels and storage levels reached over 95% as of 1 November.
According to the Commission’s assessment, The 14 billion cubic meters annually that currently transit through Ukraine can be entirely replaced by LNG and non-Russian pipeline imports via alternative routes.
Therefore, Brussels concludes that the impact on the security of EU supply will be limited in both volume and scope. And, as an example, he gave the little effect that Gazprom’s decision to cut off supplies to the Austrian OMV had.
According to the Brussels analysis, lkyiv’s decision will not have a major impact on Ukraine either, since it is self-sufficient in gas, but it is self-sufficient in Moldova, which largely depends on Russian gas for its electricity generation, located in Transnistria, and advocates seeking alternative solutions for the former Soviet republic.
Two days ago, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, warned that the cessation of the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory will skyrocket prices in the EU and yesterday the Slovak prime minister, the populist Robert Fico, threatened Ukraine with retaliation, such as cessation of emergency supply of electricity. EFECOM
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