The ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the elections this Sunday in Brazil, but the hidden strength of the president Jair Bolsonarowhich the polls did not detect in its full magnitude, has forced a now unpredictable second round.
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Lula, champion of a progressive front, obtained 48.3% of the vote, within the margin of error projected by most polls, but the leader of the extreme right achieved the support of 43.2% of the electorate, when the polls attributed him a maximum of 37%.
(In context: Elections in Brazil: Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro will go to the second round)
According to the regional results, this flow of voters that the polls did not detect was hidden above all in the state of Sao Paulothe largest electoral college in the country, where the Bolsonarist gubernatorial candidate, Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, obtained 42%, seven points more than the demographic studies predicted.
He will also have to contest a second round against the progressive Fernando Haddad, Lula’s dolphin and favorite in the polls, who, however, stayed at 35%.
The result in Sao Paulo was key so that the difference of between 12 and 15 percentage points that Lula maintained in the polls against Bolsonaro is reduced to less than half, with which everything is open for the second round on October 30.
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Bolsonaro was also helped by the re-election in the first round of the governor of Rio Janeiro, Claudio Castrowho achieved an overwhelming 58%, compared to 27% for the progressive Marcelo Freixo, a difference whose magnitude was not foreseen by any survey.
In any case, the slight advantage left the definition open and projects weeks of an intense and aggressive campaign in a deeply divided country, analysts agree. As has happened in other recent key events, such as the election of Donald Trump in the United States in 2016 or Brexit in Great Britain the same year, the main pollsters were completely wrong.
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on the hunt for votes
It will now be another four weeks of campaigning and one of the keys will be in the positions adopted by the senator Simone Tebbetof the center-right Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), and Cyrus Gomesstandard-bearer of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), which this Sunday shared the support of almost 8% of the electorate.
Tebet was in third place, with 4.1%, followed by Gomes (3%), but in their parties there are sectors that had anticipated their support for Lula, already for this Sunday.
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With that, Lula would have a greater space to fish than Bolsonaro, who in principle would have a difficult task of adding votes beyond the extreme right and the most conservative sectors that support him.
Although Gomes had anticipated that he would not support either Bolsonaro or Lula, the PDT, historically close to the former president, has hinted that he will have a side in the second round.
Perhaps for this reason, the Labor candidate said this Sunday, after knowing the results, that will take “a few days to think” and that he will consult “with the party” for his final decision.
Tebet was also elusive after the polls closed and said that he will consult with the MDB, but clarified that will not be “omissive”.
“The word is now with the party, because I am respectful of the decision-making process, but in a maximum of 48 hours I will make a statement, because I have a responsibility,” she declared.
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‘To talk to everyone’
Lula, who prevailed in the second round the two times he won the elections, in 2002 and 2007, announced that, as on those other occasions, is willing to talk with all sectors of politics starting tomorrow.
Leandro Consentino, a political scientist at the Insper institute, predicts an “open end” and “an even situation” for both, with Bolsonaro showing strength in key states such as Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, in the southeast of Brazil and which gather 40 % of the electoral register.
But Bolsonaro forgot his threats not to admit an adverse result and even admitted that this Sunday the Brazilians expressed their “will to change.”
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And he has already set the tone for what his campaign will be for next October 30, by stressing that “this change cannot be for the worse.”
He cited the cases of Argentina, Chile and Colombiacountries in which the right has been displaced by progressive leaders in recent times, and insisted that Brazilians “cannot run the risk of losing their freedom.”
He also assured that a victory for Lula would put at risk “religious freedom” and the “respect” that the current government has for “the family” and “traditional values”, with which he hinted that for the second round he will still emphasize plus the ultraconservative agenda with which he came to power in 2018.
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What comes in the second round?
For the ballot, the support of Simone Tebet, third with 4% of the votes, and Ciro Gomes, with 3%, will play a relevant role. Tebet promised that she would announce her position at the “right time”, while Gomes, a harsh critic of Lula and Bolsonaro, asked for time to speak out.
Bolsonaro has governed through a crisis, especially with a questionable management of the pandemic and a constant challenge to democratic institutions. In fact, he said that he hopes a position of the armed forces on the transparency of the electionsafter questioning the reliability of electronic voting.
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Maintains strong support among the electorate evangelical, agribusiness and conservative sectors. While Lula, still under the shadow of the corruption scandals unveiled when the left was in power and which disappointed many of his followers, has the support of the popular classes, women and youth.
(Keep reading: Jair Bolsonaro: the president who will risk his re-election against Lula da Silva)
“The runoff promises to be a fierce dispute. The president will invest in reducing his rejection among young people and women and, at the same time, increase that of the PT, demonizing it,” said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia. “It will be an aggressive and low-level campaign,” he anticipated.
INTERNATIONAL WRITING
*With information from EFE and AFP
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