What everyone anticipated happened, but many in USA They didn't want it to happen. This week, after the curtain fell on the decisive Super Tuesday, it was confirmed that next November's presidential elections will be a repeat of the 2020 elections between the current Democratic president, Joe Bidenand the former Republican president Donald Trump.
Although neither of the two managed to add the necessary delegates to officially become the nominee of their respective parties, the forcefulness of their victories (Biden won in 15 states and Trump in 14), left the way clear for this to materialize in the elections. next weeks.
Although Biden never had a serious opponent to threaten his candidacy, Trump still had to face the former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haleythe last among a group of more than nine rivals that the former president ended up crushing in record time.
Haley's withdrawal after Tuesday's results (she only beat him in Vermont and Washington DC), finally virtually assures Trump's place on the ballot for the general election. Something, by the way, is atypical in American elections, which tend to be very competitive, at least for the party that is in the opposition.
The anticipated results also demonstrate the strength of a trump who has become master and lord of the Republican Party despite being burdened with two impeachment trials, four current criminal proceedings and an explosive exit from the White House in January 2021, which included the violent storming of the Capitol to try to prevent the certification of Biden's victory.
Even though the result had seemed inevitable for months, the short race for the nomination also made it clear that important segments in both parties aspired to a different outcome.
In the case of Democrats, a significant majority clearly expressed, survey after survey, that they would have preferred another candidate. Even some of the party's leading figures, concerned about Joe Biden's advanced age (he is 81 years old), even asked him to step aside. A particularly strong feeling among the country's youngest voters who tend to be key for Democrats in presidential elections.
On the Republican side, it is evident that Donald Trump enjoys great support among the party's base. But the vote of millions of people in favor of Haley indicates that many other Republicans do not want him. In fact, at least a fifth of these voters expressed in exit polls that they will not vote for the former president in November. In fact, proof of the resistance that exists against his name is in the negative image of him, today above 53 percent, according to the average of portal 538.
The early results also demonstrate the strength of a Trump who has become lord and lord of the Republican Party despite being burdened with two impeachment trials.
“This is an election that many voters are seeing as a decision to choose between the lesser of two evils. Neither Biden nor Trump convinces the majority, especially the independents and segments in both parties that are what ultimately define the elections,” says Linda Chervinsky, historian and presidential election expert at Southern Methodist University.
According to a recent poll by the New York Times and Sienna College, at least 20 percent of voters do not like either candidate. Something that was reflected in the electoral results of many states.
In North Carolina, one of those competitive states that could define the November elections, 25 percent of Republicans voted against Trump while another 15 percent of Democrats voted “not committed.”
The truth is that, despite the discontent, Biden and Trump are already the virtual nominees and, barring some tragedy, between one of the two the next president of the United States will emerge.
A long fight ahead
The road, yes, will be intense. The United States will face an eight-month long contest that started early and that promises to be explosive. At the moment, it seems like Trump has won.
In the same New York Times survey, the former president not only surpasses Biden by 5 points (48 versus 45) but also surpasses him in many of the “undecided” states that are the ones that will ultimately define these elections, probably worse. more polarized than the previous ones.
And what is more worrying for the current president and virtual Democratic candidate, only a quarter of those surveyed believe that the country is going in the right direction and almost half expressed annoyance about the state of the country's economy.
The survey also showed that there are large fissures in the support of women, Latinos and African Americans, three groups that favored Biden in 2020 and that he needs to conquer if he wants to win.
But perhaps the worst thing for Biden is the lack of enthusiasm that his name arouses. While only 23 percent of the party feels motivated by his candidacy, more than twice as many say the same about Trump in the Republican camp.
“The key in this election, as in most, is the enthusiasm of the people. It's not that Democratic voters are going to vote for Trump, but if they decide not to vote or vote blank, that would give them the White House, since at the moment there is more motivation in the Republican party,” says Chervinsky.
But, as electoral expert Nat Cohen says, eight months in politics is an “eternity” and anything could happen between now and the elections.
“Surveys at this time are very premature. In this one at Sienna College, at least 10 percent say they are undecided. Many voters, around this time, are not focused on the elections. That is, they say what they don't want, but they still don't weigh their decision. But sooner or later and as the date approaches, the panorama will begin to clear up,” says Cohen.
And that's where Biden hopes to capitalize with a message aimed at women and minorities about how much they could lose from a Trump return to the Oval Office. Message that he has already started selling and in the best scenario of all. This Thursday, during his speech before Congress on the State of the Union, which ended up being almost a campaign event focused primarily on attacks against his rival, the president recalled, for example, that thanks to Trump the protections that existed against him fell. to abortion and the great impact that this is having on the reproductive rights of millions of women.
An issue that impacted many in the last legislative elections when the Republicans – as now – had to sweep and ended up on the defensive.
“My God, what more rights will they want to take away from us now,” said the Democratic president in one of at least 12 mentions he made to criticize his rival.
Biden also called him a “puppet of Russia” and “a danger to democracy,” reliving the events of the fateful January 6, 2021.
The president even confronted the issue of his age head-on with an energetic and combative speech in which he stressed that the problem was not his age but rather the archaic ideas promoted by Trump (who is 77 years old) and the Republicans.
“My fellow Americans, the problem facing our nation is not the age we are, but the age of our ideas. Hatred, anger, revenge and retribution are the oldest ideas. But you can't lead America with old ideas that only set us back. Life has taught me that we must defend freedom and democracy. But other people my age see it differently. “That's not me,” the president said.
Meanwhile, there is great uncertainty about the course of the investigations against Trump and the possible electoral impact of a conviction in one of the four criminal proceedings he has pending.
What no one doubts is that these elections, as almost always happens in the United States, will be extremely competitive and will end up being resolved by a handful of votes in very few states. It will dawn and we will see.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
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