According to an analysis from Agence France-Presse, Putin also has diplomatic doors to get out of the situation if necessary, but he has to expect serious challenges if he chooses to control all of Ukraine.
war goals
Putin’s goals, which are summed up in Ukraine’s “neutrality” and “disarmament”, have not changed, in other words, the ex-Soviet republic’s non-joining of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
On the other hand, the Kremlin is no longer necessarily betting on the overthrow of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has become a symbol of resistance in the eyes of the Western world.
Marie Dumoulan, an expert at the European Council on International Relations (ECFR), notes that “the initial plan, which may have involved a blitzkrieg to take Kyiv very quickly and bring down the Ukrainian government, did not work.”
The source stated that the Russian attack faces unexpected Ukrainian resistance, which complicates matters for the Kremlin, which is used to achieving immediate military successes, starting with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 to intervening in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad.
“Putin is still betting that the war will not last, and that he will eventually impose himself thanks to his military size, no matter what resistance he faces on the ground,” says Frederic Charillon, professor of international relations at Clermont-Auvergne University and author of Wars of Influence.
The French academic adds that in the face of the difficulties faced by the Russian army on the ground and the series of sanctions imposed on Russia, Putin is turning more and more towards a war of destruction and punishment.
“The question is not what he wants to get, but how and at what cost,” says Tatiana Stanovaya, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Moscow. “It will take time and cause more tragedies, but he is convinced that there is no choice and that he is charged with a historic mission” to restore influence. Russian.
Win the war at any cost
If the besieged Ukrainian army in the east of the country collapses, Moscow could potentially control a country of about 40 million people, larger than France and serving as a buffer zone against NATO.
And reported, “AFP”, that Russia also risks finding itself in the face of a rebellion. Frederic Charillon believes that “he will have to hold on. Controlling an area in the face of an insurgency is very difficult,” noting that the Americans faced the same challenge in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Some also fear a military escalation by Russia, from the use of chemical weapons to attacks on Western convoys carrying military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
And Marie Dumoulin points out that it is more likely that Putin will redouble his efforts and move to a strategy of what she described as a “dirty war” to increase the human cost for the Ukrainians and force them to surrender.
Are there exit doors?
The agency quoted locals as saying that if the situation stumbles or remains unresolved, Vladimir Putin can also “save face” by extracting political concessions from Kyiv and maintaining control over some areas.
“The basis for Putin is strength, pressure and victory,” says Abbas Galiamov, a Russian political analyst. “He cannot back down without making some gains. … He needs an agreement on Ukraine’s neutrality. But it is clearly not enough. He also wants recognition (annexation) of Crimea and (independently) the breakaway pro-Russian republics of Lugansk and Donetsk.”
If Ukraine does not agree to such demands, Russia will still be able to make gains in the east of the country, with the main objective of ensuring geographical extension between Donbass and the port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Crimea to the south.
“It is not excluded that the Russians will then try to push the offensive into Odessa to seize the entire Ukrainian coast on the Black Sea,” says Dumolan.
Putin’s threat?
The French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) sees in an analytical note that the longer the war continues, “without the prospect of a quick solution”, the more likely the tensions will worsen to the “collapse of the system of power in the Kremlin”.
Gharbiot analysts say some of Russia’s wealthy, powerful and security chiefs may be inclined to ask Vladimir Putin to “stop”.
But Tatiana Stanovaya says, “At the moment, I see no indication of this in the Russian elite… Even if the war seems to have shocked a part of this elite, it is not politically ready to stand against it.”
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