Silvio Berlusconi is missing 51 votes to become President of the Republic and succeed Sergio Mattarella. The meeting between the three leaders of the Center-right yesterday at Villa Grande, the new home of the former Knight in Rome, decided that the coalition will move “compactly and in time to prepare for the next electoral and political appointments, with particular attention to the election of the next President of the Republic “. Translation: Lega and Fratelli d’Italia are ready to support Berlusconi’s now practically safe candidacy for the Quirinale in February next year. It is probable that the other minor forces of the Center-right will also converge, such as Coraggio Italia, the UDC and Noi with Italy.
The Democratic Party has obviously not yet expressed itself in an official way, also because it is too early and formally the former Cav has not taken the field, but Enrico Letta’s no is taken for granted. Just as there is little doubt that Giuseppe Conte’s M5S, in addition to LeU, takes sides against the hypothesis of the president of Forza Italia Head of State. But the last Christian Democrat in Parliament, Gianfranco Rotondi, assures that in private conversations, with the microphone off, there are many Pd and even M5S parliamentarians who esteem Berlusconi and who in the secret of the ballot box could vote for him without problems.
To be elected to the presidency of the Republic, in the first three ballots a two-thirds majority is needed (672 votes), while from the fourth vote onwards an absolute majority is sufficient, i.e. 50 percent plus one (505 votes). In the Chamber the deputies of FI are 88, 132 of the Lega, 36 of the Brothers of Italy, 15 of Cambiamo! and Noi with Italy and at least 15 out of 78 of the Mixed could vote for the former Knight. In the Senate there are 52 Berlusconian blues, 64 Northern League supporters, 20 Melonians and at least 12 Mixed Senators ready to support the former premier.
It should not be forgotten that there are 58 regional delegates for the election of the Head of State: three for each region except one for the Aosta Valley. And since 15 out of 20 regions are led by the Lega-FdI-FI alliance, it is likely that the center-right delegates, ready to write Berlusconi’s name on the ballot, are at least 35 out of 58. The total votes on paper for the ex Cavaliere reaches 454, or 51 less than the quorum of the absolute majority (505) required by the fourth ballot.
If we then hypothesize an agreement with Matteo Renzi (a sort of revised re-edition of the Nazarene Pact) by adding the 45 votes of Italia Viva, we would reach 499, that is, only six votes would be missing to trigger the election of Berlusconi at the Quirinale. Of course, it is not easy and the road is all uphill, but in the end Renzi could also choose Berlusconi to avoid Mario Draghi al Colle and the real risk of early elections in 2022. And so remain those six votes which, according to Rotondi, yes they find very, very easily …
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