Giuseppe Conte and Roberto Gualtieri were in the same Council of Ministers, but the official support of the M5S to the Pd candidate is not at all obvious
The ballots in Rome and Turin put a strain on the alliance project between the Pd and M5S: the phenomenon of "free exit" votes cast doubt on the fate of Gualtieri and Lo Russo
Political negotiations are in full swing in Rome and Turin, in view of the ballots, but the winning of free votes is far from obvious. The Democratic Party was convinced that it could have an easy time in a second round in which it would have reasonably benefited from the convergence of both the M5S, with which a broader national strategy is in place, and the "left-left", in the name of opposing the right. If the latter objective was facilitated by the double alarm-neo-fascism launched by the "black lobby" investigation and by the assault on the CGIL, a completely different story must be told in the relationship with the M5S. Local specificities in fact represent a concrete obstacle to the structural alliance project that should give life to the new center-left.
THE MICKS OF HANGER AND SPOKES
In Turin the figure of Stefano Lo Russo is considered very far from the M5S, also because it represents a sort of return to the "firm" that has long governed the city, before discontent was embodied in the election of Chiara Hangers, which today is one of the least convinced of the opportunity to support the candidate of the Democratic Party. Even more determined to get in the way is the outgoing Mayor of Rome: Virginia Raggi not only does it not intend to do that endorsement for Roberto Gualtieri which would be very welcome a Giuseppe Conte, but it is approaching the ballot with steps that seem to prelude the birth of its own current, not at all favorable to the line of entry into the progressive front.
THE CALENDA AND BAPTIST FACTOR
In the capital, moreover, we must also deal with Alessandro Di Battista, a free hitter still quite influential on the grillino electorate of the first hour. And it is certainly no mystery that not even for him the prospect of marriage represents the best of all possible worlds. Who will certainly vote for Gualtieri is Carlo Calenda, who however specified that he had made a personal choice and that in any case he will sit in the opposition in the benches of the Capitol: there is no commitment in involving the voters of Action, in order not to lose consent towards those who come from a background rather distant from the center-left.
VOTES IN FREE RELEASE
In this scenario, a traditional element of the double round elections is missing: the choice of field by those who, defeated in the first round, take sides out of sincere conviction or mere opportunity. Between personal positions and utterances on the voters who "are not postal packages", it is all a race to slip away from demanding choices, a factor that produces a "free exit" vote and therefore seriously questions the final result.
THE CENTER RIGHT POINTS ON THE OUTSKIRTS
For its part, the center-right can benefit from this lack of welding, given that its coalition has already revealed itself in the first round and it is unlikely that it will be able to earn much in the second round. If anything, the keystone is for Enrico Michetti that for Paolo Damilano it is linked to the turnout. The hopes of victory are linked to the ability to motivate voters to return to the polls, with particular regard to suburbs: contrary to what has been said in some superficial hot analyzes, the center-left in these areas has not particularly broken through, but has above all benefited from abstention.
The challenge of Rome and Turin is played out on these variables, also decisive from a national perspective. Because there is a huge difference between a 5-1 for the center-left and a 3-3.