Election political polls today 18 October 2023
ELECTION POLITICAL POLLS – All the main parties are losing support, while the smaller ones are gaining ground. This is what emerges from the latest survey carried out by SWG for TgLa7which sees the Brothers of Italy, the Democratic Party, the 5 Star Movement and the League in decline.
In the week from 9 to 16 October, the party led by Giorgia Meloni lost 0.3 percentage points, falling to 28.4 percent, while the Democratic Party fell to 19.6 percent (-0.2%). For the 5 Star Movement the drop was 0.4 points, bringing the figure to 16.1%, while the League lost a tenth of a point, reaching 10.2 percent. Forza Italia was stable, at 6.4 percent, while Azione rose to 4 percent (+0.3%), followed by the Green/Left Alliance at 3.6 percent (+0.3%). Italy is still alive at 2.5 percent, paired with +Europe (+0.1%). Followed by Per l’Italia con Paragone, at 1.8 percent (+0.1%), Unione Popolare, at 1.4 percent (-0.2%) and Noi Moderati, at 1 percent (+0. 2%).
HOW POLLS ARE DONE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling companies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to interview that is sufficiently large and representative of the population they intend to analyse. In the case of surveys on party voting intentions or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the margin of error indicated is 3 percent with a confidence interval of 95 percent. The greatest difficulty for pollsters is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population. Interviews for electoral political surveys are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
Read also: All surveys
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