What is happening is “the worst flu of the century”. Thus the epidemiologist Pier Luigi Lopalco, professor of hygiene at the University of Salento, entitles a post published on his Facebook profile. “I know, an exaggerated title is not a friend of good scientific communication”, he said. “But unfortunately – he explains – this year’s flu season is expected to be worse than that of 2017-18 which, in turn, was the worst since in Italy we measure the circulation of flu viruses in a standard way, i.e. since 1999- 2000. We are therefore not wrong in affirming that the intensity of the flu epidemic this year is the worst of the century”.
“Warning: this does not mean that the flu is ‘more aggressive’ this year”, specifies the expert. “The flu – he points out – is always to be considered a demanding disease that is accompanied by a high and potentially lethal burden of disease. What changes from season to season is the intensity of circulation of the virus: there are seasons in which the virus finds a more resistant (immune) population, others in which it encounters more susceptible people who support its circulation. From this point of view, children are the ones who always make the difference”. Not surprisingly, “also this year the incidence of flu syndromes in children is at least 10 times higher than in the elderly – underlines Lopalco – Two years of absence flu circulation due to the Covid-19 pandemic have produced an important accumulation of susceptible “.
“In the last week of the survey – recalls the epidemiologist on the basis of the latest InfluNet bulletin from the Higher Institute of Health – the total incidence was approximately 16 per 1,000: almost 2% of the population became infected in one week. If we take children between 0 and 4 years old, this value rises to 50 per 1,000: 5%. If we project these estimates onto the Italian population, about half a million citizens have been in bed with the flu in a week. And we still cannot say if the peak has been reached. Another anomaly of this season – analyzes Lopalco – is the advance of the epidemic curve, which can be estimated by 6-8 weeks. Exactly as observed in Australia, where the flu season occurs during our summer”.
“Don’t say we didn’t say it: both anticipation and intensity” of the 2022-23 flu “had been predicted by the experts who, rightly, had raised the alarm in time to anticipate and strengthen the vaccination campaign. I’m afraid” though ” that this alarm has not been picked up either by citizens who are fed up with hearing about viruses, or by the decidedly exhausted health service after the pandemic vaccination campaign. However, it is never too late to get vaccinated “, he adds.
The expert’s message is that we can still protect ourselves. “The peak has not yet arrived – he specifies – and when it arrives, however, the cases registered up to that moment will represent only half of the cases of the entire season (the curve is generally quite symmetrical). The priority” for vaccination “always remains linked to age (first the elderly and children 6 months-6 years) – recalls Lopalco – and the presence of chronic diseases, but anyone can benefit from the vaccination.The probability of falling ill this year is very high for everyone and spending the Christmas holidays in bed is not a good experience for anyone.”
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