The attack on the Ukrainian military base at Yavoriv, about 15 kilometers from the Polish border, was an attempt by Russia to disrupt the supply lines for weapons sent by the West to Ukraine. The bombing came a day after US President Joe Binden announced the availability of an additional US$200 million in military aid to Ukraine.
The military base was the target of at least 30 missiles fired by Russian aircraft between 5:00 am and 6:00 am this Saturday (0:00 and 1:00 am Brasília time). At least 35 people died and 134 were injured.
Yavoriv is 50 kilometers from Lviv, the largest city in the west of the country, which has served as a gateway for thousands of refugees to Poland and Slovakia.
Before the attack, Russia had told the United States that “sending weapons is not just a dangerous move, it is an action that makes these convoys legitimate targets,” according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
Russia claimed that the attacked base was used for training “mercenaries” and for storing weapons sent by the West.
The military facility, which covers an area of more than 300 square kilometers, was known in Ukraine as the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security. Before the war, the site was used for military exercises involving Ukrainian and NATO (western military alliance) forces.
international fighters
There is no news so far that Ukraine is using mercenaries in the war against Russia. However, Moscow could be referring to fighters of the international legion – citizens of countries like England, Scotland, Ireland, Portugal, Germany and the United States who traveled voluntarily to defend Ukraine.
They do not receive payment for their services, on the contrary, they travel by ideology and with pockets full of money to acquire weapons and pay for their expenses in Ukraine. You can find them practically on every corner of Lviv. The government of President Volodymyr Zelensky has encouraged their participation. The international legion would have received more than 20,000 fighters in recent days.
The Yavoriv base could be being used as a training center for some of these volunteers. The information was neither denied nor confirmed by the Ukrainian authorities. Yavoriv prefecture said it could not say whether the dead and wounded were Ukrainians or foreigners “in order not to give information to the enemy”.
The US government stated that there had been no US military personnel at the facility since the beginning of the war. However, it is clear that Ukraine has received aid from US and British special forces since 2014, when Russian separatists dominated Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. They acted as advisors, assisting Ukrainian forces to resist a Russian offensive.
It is still unclear in this war whether or not Western commando units and special forces are operating unmarked in support of Ukrainian forces.
weapons logistics
The United States and its European allies have been sending anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to assist Ukrainian forces even before the start of the war. US military aid to Ukraine last year was more than $1 billion. According to the newspaper New York Timesjust last week more than 17,000 of these weapons were secretly sent to Ukrainian territory.
Among these weapons are portable Javelin missile launchers, capable of destroying heavy armored vehicles and even Russian attack helicopters, and M72 anti-tank rockets (the evolution of the WWII bazooka). Stinger anti-aircraft missiles are also being supplied, which can be used to shoot down aircraft operating at low altitude.
The dispatch of this type of weapon, considered as “defense”, occurred after several conflicts of the last century, without triggering a direct conflict between the great powers.
For example, in the Vietnam War (1955-1975), the Soviet Union provided defense weapons for the Vietnamese to fight the Americans. When the Soviet Union faced Afghanistan (1979-1989), the US sent portable missiles to the Afghans, which made it difficult for the Soviets to act. But at no point did this lead to a direct confrontation between Moscow and Washington.
These weapons are believed to be entering Ukraine by land, across the borders of Romania and Poland. according to Wall Street Journal, on Saturday alone, seven military cargo planes from NATO countries landed at Rzeszow airport, in southern Poland. It is unclear how they are crossing the border and whether they were actually stockpiled in Yavoriv.
“Most likely, Moscow intelligence pointed out that this Ukrainian training base very close to the Polish border should be a weapons receiving point. We have no way of saying whether it was happening or not, but it makes sense given the geographical position. It is a way of showing that he will not hesitate to carry out this type of bombing when he has a target in Ukraine that he thinks is legitimate and rewarding,” said military analyst and reserve colonel of the Brazilian Army, Paulo Roberto da Silva Gomes. Son.
Therefore, the attack on the Ukrainian base and also bombings carried out over the weekend against the cities of Lutsk (a city on the Polish border that is part of the main road route to Kiev) and Ivano-Frankivsk (border with Romania) have been interpreted by analysts as a warning from the Russians to NATO.
The convoys covered in secrecy, which are taking these weapons to various battlefronts in Ukraine, may from now on become a constant target of Russian aviation – if they are identified by Russian intelligence.
The US and NATO already knew that the window of opportunity to put these weapons on Ukrainian soil was closing, as sooner or later Russia would start bombing Ukraine’s supply lines.
What is not known is whether Moscow intends to destabilize Ukrainian logistics with bombing alone or whether it may try to capture cities and territories in the west of the country.
eastern front
As it begins to attack supply lines in the west, Russia appears to launch major offensives in the east and north of the country this weekend.
Militarily, the most important is taking place in the easternmost part of Ukraine. According to a British intelligence report released on Sunday, Russian forces are starting to advance southwards from the city of Kharkiv and northwards from Mariupol.
If these forces meet in the central region of the country, all Ukrainian troops that have formed a containment line for Russian separatists installed in Luhansk and Donetsk since 2014 will be surrounded.
If this scenario starts to materialize, possibly the Ukrainian army will have to withdraw further west, lest it be cornered. That would give Russia a major victory on the eastern front.
In Kiev, in the north, Russia pursues an objective that is more political than military. Troops from four armies begin to close a siege around the capital. According to sources linked to the international legion fighting in Kiev, Russian armored reconnaissance troops are already clashing with the capital’s defenders.
However, the city still faces many days of heavy bombing before Russia launches its main attack.
This strategic situation at the moment seems to indicate that a ceasefire still seems a long way off.
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