According to the study, recently published in the journal “Global Chang Biology”, the average global temperature continues to increase beyond 2100 between a medium and low level, and under these scenarios, the vegetation cover and the best areas for growing crops move towards the poles.
At the same time, suitable space for some crops is limited, to the point that places with a long history of cultural and ecosystem richness, such as the Amazon basin, will become barren.
Besides, researchers found that stress It may reach levels fatal to humans in the tropics that are currently highly populated, and these areas may become uninhabitable.
In the study, scientists tried to answer a troubling question about the shape of the world in the future, given the state of the Earth after the year 2100, by activating the global climate model based on representative concentration pathways, which are “time-dependent projections of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.” “.
Scientists put three projections for future scenarios; Low (RCP6.0), medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP2.6), all meet the Paris Agreement’s target of “well below 2°C” through 2500.
The researchers also modeled the distribution of vegetation, heat stress, and growing conditions for plants of today’s major crops, to get a sense of what kind of environmental challenges today’s children and their grandchildren may have to adapt from the 22nd century onward.
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