Have we reached the peak of the infections caused by Omicron? The assumptions converge on the end of January for the achievement of the maximum increase in daily cases. It all depends on the prevalence of Omicron on Delta and the effect of the reopening of schools
The data from Thursday on coronavirus infections in Italy also light a flicker of hope: there were fewer infected in 24 hours than the day before, 184,615 new positives (up from 196,224 on Wednesday). The new case curve continues to decline after the weekly peak on Tuesday (with the record of +220.552 cases), in advance of the usual ups and downs that each week brings a new weekly peak between Friday and Saturday.
Cases are growing, but less so
This swing of the curve suggests a slight slowdown in growth. The trend still rising, the cases grow, but they grow less, a brake that could be the first sign of the plateau (the plateau of new cases), which in turn is the prelude to the descent. The forecasts, which remain hypotheses, converge on the idea of a peak towards the end of January. Observing the independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation, which was also released on Thursday, the same trend can be seen, growth slows down in the weekly comparison: + 49% the new cases in the week 5-11 January against + 153% the week before. In the same time frame hospitalizations and deaths, on the other hand, mark greater increases, but usually the decline of these parameters follows that of cases after 1-2 weeks: + 20% intensive care this week (it was + 21% in the previous monitoring) + 31.2% hospitalizations (it was + 28%) . The saddest indicator is up sharply: + 37.4% deaths (it was + 9%).
The forecasts converge
We are in the middle of Omicron’s extraordinary peak. If we look at the 7-day data of the growth of cases in the US and in Italy, there is a parallelism in the exponential increase of the pandemic, underlined Anthony Fauci, consultant for the pandemic of US President Biden in his lectio magistralis in streaming at the University. Sapienza University of Rome, where he received an honorary doctorate on Thursday. Virologist Fauci said that in the last 100 years he had never seen a so contagious virus. The formidable contagiousness of Omicron could be what caused the sudden and short-term spike in cases, but it could also determine the equally fast descent, as happened in South Africa. It is unthinkable that we continue to stick to these high numbers because susceptible people would still be lacking. With the data we have at the most by the end of January, but probably even sooner, the contagion curve will start to go down, al Courier service Paolo Bonanni, epidemiologist. Omicron exploded from the last decade of December and since then the curve has soared very quickly, day after day. Epidemic growth modeling experts tell us it will rise to a peak at end of January, said Sergio Abrignani, immunologist at the State University of Milan. With such a contagious variant, the peak of the new positives curve would be reached earlier, in the same way, as has already happened in South Africa and Great Britain, the decline will also be faster – prefigured Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Institute of Pharmacological Research. and added -. In Italy there are two pandemics, caused respectively by Omicron and Delta: if the two variants continue to coexist, this could represent a problem. But if Omicron manages to overwhelm Delta, then perhaps we will be able to see the curve descend in the lap of a few weeks.
The prevalence of Omicron and schools
The decline in infections depends on a series of variables: one of these precisely prevalence of one or more variants on the national territory. The last (and now anachronistic) flash survey of the Istituto Superiore di Sanit (Iss) on the matter, dated 23 December, said that Omicron cases in Italy were 28% on average. Today we can assume that it is prevalent.
Today Omicron at 65.9%, which means that in 10 days we will all be Omicron, he said for the Veneto the governor, Luca Zaia, illustrating the data on sequencing. We follow several models and one of the most reliable tells us that on January 23 we will have the peak of the infections and on February 10, the peak of admissions, added Zaia.
In Lombardy there is someone who ventures the hypothesis that the peak was January 4th, because a graphic in the hands of the Lombardy Welfare Directorate and viewed by Courier service indicates that, week by week, the increase in cases decreases.
In addition to the variants in circulation, one must consider the last unknown: the effect of reopening of schools on infections. The return to class could lead to a new surge e move the peak again farther.
The descent in some countries hit before
Signs of optimism in general about the possibility of overcoming the epidemic caused by Omicron come from the countries (or areas) that had an explosion of Omicron cases before Italy. In South Africa new cases every day are decreased by about 70% compared to the peak in mid-December. In Great Britain, where pandemic trends were often a few weeks ahead of those of our country, the cases peaked just after the New Year and have declined slightly since then. TO New York City the number of new Covid cases has increased more than twenty times in December, in the last few days flattened itself. TO Boston, the amount of Covid virus detected in wastewater precipitated by about 40% from the peak just after January 1st. In several other major US cities the number also shows signs of stabilization.
January 14, 2022 (change January 14, 2022 | 09:07)
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