Alarm in Ukraine over rapid Russian advance on Donetsk front

“It is not necessary to advance where it is possible, but where it is necessary.” Valery Zaluzhny, former head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, repeated this phrase to his closest staff in moments of tension with President Volodymyr Zelensky. His former adviser Liudmila Goldonovska explains it in The Iron General. Lessons in Humanitya newly published biography of Zaluzhny. The book gives examples of military operations that Zelensky demanded to be carried out and that the general would have preferred not to follow. These words resonate today as alarm bells have been ringing in Ukraine over the rapid Russian advance on several flanks of Donetsk province.

The Ukrainian lightning offensive in the Russian province of Kursk, launched on August 6 under the direct orders of the president, took advantage of the weak enemy defenses. One objective of the operation was to force Russia to transfer its regiments from other fronts to Kursk. The result, so far, is not as expected.

Russian troops are advancing in three sectors of the Donetsk front: where they have devoted most resources is to capturing the city of Pokrovsk, a strategic enclave that has served as a rear logistical base in the south of the province. The Russians have the city just eight kilometers away. Two months ago, the distance between the town and the Russians was 23 kilometers. The evacuation of civilians has been the priority in the last two weeks.

The Russian army also has the town of Toretsk on the ropes and has begun the siege of Vugledar. The latter town was the scene of one of Moscow’s most humiliating defeats in this war at the beginning of 2023. Russian General Rustam Muradov was dismissed after three months of assaults that ended in hundreds of human casualties and the loss of dozens of armored vehicles. The invader has tried again, launching attacks to surround it and taking advantage of the fact that Ukrainian units defending it have been moved to Pokrovsk.

The AFP agency estimated on Monday that the current Russian offensive in Donetsk had brought it the largest gain of territory since the end of 2022, 477 square kilometres. Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted: “We have not seen such rapid progress for a long time. The armed forces are not advancing 200-300 metres, but are advancing by taking square kilometres.”

The key is to know how long the Russian armies commanded by Valery Gerasimov will be able to maintain this pace. Zelensky stressed on Monday that “the offensive in Kursk is fulfilling its objectives and is developing according to plan.” Regarding the aspiration that Russia would reduce assets in Donetsk to stop the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory, the Ukrainian head of state expressed doubts: “As for the difficulties in Pokrovsk and Toretsk, we believe that the operation in Kursk may have an influence. There could be a reduction of Russian forces there. But for the moment, the situation is difficult.”

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, two of the most prominent American analysts of the war in Ukraine, confirmed in a brief essay published on Tuesday in Foreign Affairs that the Kursk operation “weakens the shaky Ukrainian front.” Kofman and Lee recall that with the new front Russia opened north of Kharkiv in May, Kiev’s defenses were already under greater pressure. These experts consider that the assault on Kursk was well planned, but “so far there is no evidence that it has succeeded in drawing Russian forces from other fronts.”

On August 27, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Sirski, estimated that Gerasimov had deployed 30,000 soldiers to Kursk, although he admitted that they did not come from the sectors where the Russians are pushing hardest. Most centers of study of this war agree that these Russian reinforcements are army units in reserve, which were not involved in the invasion. Sirski’s hope is to prevent these additions from joining the offensives in the Donetsk province. The problem is that Ukrainian troops and weapons have been deployed for the incursion into Kursk that were being used to defend fronts such as those in Donbas.

Kofman and Lee say that the Ukrainian law on conscript mobilization passed in the spring has doubled the number of recruits to the army. These may be decisive in the coming months, but not in the summer.

Impatience on the Ukrainian side is already prompting a succession of criticisms, especially from soldiers fighting in Donetsk. In both the media and in Telegram groups, more voices are appearing lamenting that their position has been weakened by the operation in Kursk. Yurii Butusov, the editor of Censor Neta Ukrainian media outlet considered close to Zaluzhni, was highly critical in an assessment made public on August 21: “Considering all the importance that Sudzha has [el principal municipio conquistado por el ejército ucranio en Rusia]from a military point of view, from a national point of view, from the point of view of the state interests of Ukraine, 50 Sudzhas are not worth a Pokrovsk, a Mirnograd, or a Selidov. [localidades colindantes a Pokrovsk]. And the enemy is about to enter them.”

Azov Reviews

Even more alarming are the statements of Bogdan Krotevich, the top commander of the Azov Brigade, on Monday in The Times: “In Kursk they are sending artillery and brigades just to hold their positions. The best thing they could do is to mine everything, get out of there and come here.” [el frente de Donetsk]Ukraine has taken control of about 1,200 square kilometers of Russian territory, but progress has been minimal in the past week, and for the first time, Kremlin regiments even pushed back the Ukrainians in the town of Korenevo, a stronghold that Sirki’s men wanted to take at all costs to double the territory they had conquered.

Few military men have the influence of Krotevich in Ukraine. The Azov leader published a statement last
June announcing that he had reported Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol, then commander of the Joint Forces of the Ukrainian army, to the secret services. Krotevich accused him of incompetence, of having caused more Ukrainian casualties than the Russians and even of possible collaboration with the enemy. Zelensky dismissed Sodol within 24 hours.

Ukrainian military expert Kirilo Danilchenko told the media on Monday LB that the Russians are even allowing themselves to advance towards Pokrovsk without major human losses because the Ukrainian brigades in that sector are “exhausted”. Danilchenko warned that the Ukrainian defences in Pokrovsk were already decimated in the spring, when part of their forces were redeployed to Vovchansk, north of Kharkiv.

It is difficult to counter Russian air superiority, Danilchenko continued, but he was hopeful that if the Russians were stopped at Vovchansk and other sectors, they could be stopped at Pokrovsk: “The enemy will have to be stopped, at a very high price. The Russians need results before winter. But the Russians will find themselves in a densely built-up area.” [es más difícil defender dentro de zona urbana]“Pokrovsk is neither Bakhmut nor Chasiv Yar in terms of size.”

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