The Tax Authority endorses the forecasts of the Ministry and even considers that those of employment fall short
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), which has made so many reproaches to the regional government for failing to meet budget deficit targets, now recognizes the Executive’s success in its economic forecasts for 2022 and 2023 on which it bases the budget project for the next year, according to the report published yesterday by this body.
AIReF expressly grants its endorsement to the calculations made by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, although it recalls that “they are carried out in a context of uncertainty that makes their assessment difficult at the national level, but in an increased way at the territorial level since the last The information available on the Regional Accounts of Spain is that referring to the year 2020 and is not consistent with the information for the national set” after the latest statistical reviews.
Specifically, and with regard to regional GDP, the agency considers the Ministry’s forecast of 4% growth for this year to be “optimistic”, compared to the 2% indicated by AIReF itself, but it does not reject it since “it It is within the range of the estimates of other institutions and organizations.
For 2023, the GDP growth estimate for the Government is 0.9%, “practically in line with what is forecast by AIReF”, which is 0.8%, which is why it qualifies it as “feasible”.
In terms of employment, the forecasts of the Independent Fiscal Authority are much more satisfactory than those of the Ministry headed by Luis Alberto Marín, who considers this aspect as proof of the “prudence, rigor and seriousness with which we carry out the calculations” , indicated yesterday to THE TRUTH.
The Ministry of Economy and Employment included in the macroeconomic table for 2022 and 2023 forecasts of an increase in employment of 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively. AIReF, on the other hand, believes that the regional economy has a much greater capacity to create jobs and forecasts that 1% more jobs will be created this year and 0.4% next.
In absolute figures, that 0.4% more employment will mean an increase in the number of employed by about 24,900, compared to the 6,125 included in the Ministry’s calculations.
Persistent risks
However, the report reiterates that the current economic situation is not the most favorable and that the “forecasts of this Community are framed in a context of materialization of numerous risks identified since the end of 2021 and especially throughout 2022, which would be impacting in the expectations of economic growth of the European Union and of Spain for the coming years».
The energy crisis, the persistence of inflation and the tightening of financing conditions are three of the risks cited by AIReF, which praises the Community for “satisfactorily complying with the good practice advice of including a comparison with other independent and informational forecasts of the econometric techniques, models and parameters and of the assumptions used in their macroeconomic forecasts».
Councilor Martín valued the AIReF report and considered it a recognition “of the rigor of the spending ceiling of 5,943 million euros for the 2023 financial year approved by the Governing Council last week, a historic and prudent spending ceiling and ambitious that, in a context of extreme difficulty, will allow budgets to be drawn up with which to reinforce essential public services and create opportunities for families, the self-employed, workers, businessmen and the most vulnerable groups in the Region”, pointed out the counselor in a press release.
As a counterpoint, Martín recalled that the forecasts included by the central government in the General State Budgets “became a dead letter in just 24 hours and have been discredited by various organizations such as AIReF, the Bank of Spain or the BBVA research center Research”.
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