A Russian government envoy traveled to China to deal with “international affairs” this Sunday (25). Andrei Rudenko, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, was scheduled for the mission to represent the country in a meeting with the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang. Officially, the two are addressing “international and regional issues of common concern,” as briefly described on the Chinese ministry’s website. The meeting, however, has as its background the recent scenario of internal crisis in the government of Vladimir Putin and the leader of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The Beijing government has yet to officially pronounce on the rebellion coordinated by Prigozhin and the subsequent retreat agreement – whose terms include the departure of the Wagner leader to Belarus, a country neighboring Russia. Chinese military expert and TV commentator Song Zhongping told Reuters news agency that “China will support Russia, without emphasizing any interference in its internal affairs.”
International analysts, however, believe that Prigozhin’s move could tarnish Putin’s image vis-à-vis Beijing. The most frequent perception is that the march of the armed rebels, who arrived just a few kilometers from Moscow, should be seen as a sign of the Russian leader’s incompetence.
weakness and incompetence
“In particular, they are likely to have new doubts about how unified Russian forces are, as well as Putin’s overall ability to control his regime. China will look with great concern at recent events in Russia,” said Rana Mitter, professor of modern Chinese history and politics at the University of Oxford.
Sari Arho Havren, an associate member of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank specializing in Chinese foreign affairs, recalled that the Chinese Communist Party has fear of chaos and instability “engraved in its DNA”. “Xi Jinping probably sees the Wagner group mutiny as a sign of serious incompetence. The rebellion clearly damaged Putin’s prestige, and the main consequence is how weak Russia’s power structure now appears in the eyes of others, “she added.
Coming across as a weak leader in front of Beijing could be a serious blow for Putin, who has personally spent years building ties between Russia and China, at a time when Moscow is increasingly dependent on political support and growing commercial ties. China has become Russia’s most important international partner since its invasion of Ukraine last February. Putin and Xi call each other “friends” and present themselves as a powerful duo capable of confronting US hegemony on the global stage. On the eve of the invasion, in February 2022, the two countries entered into an “unlimited” strategic partnership.
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