Africa Cup 2024, a review of the favorites and the promises of the competition

Twenty-four nations are competing to succeed Senegal and for the sole crown of King of Africa. At the start of CAN 2024, on Saturday, January 13 in Abidjan (Ivory Coast), France 24 analyzes the forces at play in a sporting event that promises to be more competitive than ever.

Morocco: the end of the curse?

They are the ultra favorites of the competition. His team achieved what all of Africa dreamed of: qualifying for the semifinals of a World Cup. A spectacular performance that coach Walid Regragui now wants to confirm on the continental scene: “We want to maintain the same level. I want to reach at least the semi-finals,” declared the coach, announcing that he will resign if he does not succeed. “We must go there with full confidence to overcome the curse of the Africa Cup.”

However, the “curse” could play tricks on the Atlas Lions. Indeed, although Morocco is one of the most frequent African representatives in the World Cup, it has only won one CAN in 18 participations. It was in 1976. Since then, they have suffered a series of disappointments, including a lost final in 2004 in Tunisia. Worse still, the Moroccans have only won one tie in the last decade. It was in 2022, and the adventure ended in the quarterfinals against Egypt, with a brawl between players and staff.

The time for optimism has arrived: “We have a good balance between the present and the future,” believes Regragui. In the squad, Ismael Saibari and Chadi Riad, who won the first CAN in Morocco in 2023, can show their elders how to break a spell.

Senegal: champion's suit

Senegal, long mocked in Africa for its lack of titles, has silenced the jokes for two years. After a lost final in 2019, his team won the CAN 2022 in Cameroon and, in the process, won the African Nations Championship, the CAN sub-17, the CAN sub-20, the CAN beach soccer. Supported by the best generation in its history and brilliant young people, Senegal is at the top of African football and aspires to retain the title. A performance that only Egypt, Ghana and Cameroon have achieved so far.

The problem with being at the top is that you can only go back down. And there are weak signals. In the 2022 World Cup, the Teranga Lions did not shine. The defeat against Algeria (0-1) in a friendly in September also made some shortcomings visible, and most of its managers emigrated to Saudi Arabia, leaving doubts about their ability to face high-intensity matches.

In addition, Senegal inherited a tougher group, with the Indomitable Lions of Cameroon, and a derby against its neighbors of Gambia and Guinea, who are never easy to overcome. What is there to fear if they go off track in the first round, like the Algerian champions in 2022?

Ivory Coast: favorite at home

Aurier, Diomandé, Ndicka, Kossonou, Singo, Fofana, Kessié, Sangaré, Adingra, Haller, Konaté, Pépé… Ivory Coast has one of the most impressive squads in the table. Suffice it to say that it is now or never the time to regain its place in the African pantheon after three disappointing editions; especially because the Elephants will play in front of their fans, who dream of a new coronation after the one in 2015.

However, at home, Côte d'Ivoire will be under pressure. A pressure that often plays tricks on the hosts in the African Cup of Nations. Since Egypt in 2006, no team has won at home, despite the host countries winning 11 of the previous 25 CANs. Veteran Elephants fans have not forgotten the embarrassment of 1984, when Ivory Coast bowed out of the group stage prematurely.

Algeria: a vengeful convalescent

The year 2022 was a terrible year for Algerians. Crowned by a good streak of invincibility, Algeria quickly experienced a regrettable first-round elimination in Cameroon and then a cruel non-qualification for the World Cup in Qatar.

Djamel Belmadi will take revenge on this CAN. It should be able to count on a brilliant mix between its managers Riyad Mahrez, Ramy Bensebaini, Sofiane Feghouli, Ismaël Bennacer and the emerging youth, with Rayan Aït Nouri and Farès Chaibi leading the charge. In September, Algeria sent a message by beating Senegal on their own turf: they are back.

Egypt: a team to never forget

In Africa, the pharaohs are kings. With seven coronations, including a fabulous hat-trick between 2006 and 2010, the only one in the history of the competition, Egypt continues to be feared by its opponents. Egypt, a rare team on the continent, which presents a roster made up 100% of players trained in its country, has a very interesting balance of 11 victories in 13 games since the arrival of its coach, Rui Vitoria.

There remains a mental milestone to overcome. In fact, the current generation of pharaohs has lost two finals (2017 and 2021). Mohamed Salah, his international star, has yet to win anything with his national team. However, it is difficult to bury the Egyptians too quickly, their collective discipline has allowed them more than once to defeat stronger opponents on paper.

Nigeria: a fire attack and after?

The Super Eagles' offensive armada would make the most experienced defender in the world break out in a cold sweat. And rightly so: Victor Osimhen, newly crowned African player of the year 2023, Ademola Lookman, Samuel Chukwueze, Kelechi Iheanacho, Moses Simon, Sadiq Umar, Ahmed Musa…

However, football is played with 11 players and is not won with a bunch of attackers and attacking midfielders, otherwise PSG would have won the Champions League a long time ago. The defensive sector and the position of the goalkeeper give rise to fears that Nigeria can go far in the competition. Already in 2022, Nigeria had made it through the group stage before completely collapsing due to roster imbalance. The same evils should not cause the same effects.

Like Egypt, Nigeria will want to maintain its position as an African giant: the country has already been crowned three times and has 15 podiums, an absolute record in the competition.

Mali: the Eagles ready to take off?

Often a player, never a winner. Mali is the only country that has not been crowned on our list, despite a final in 1972 and podiums in 2012 and 2013. The 2024 edition may be the right one for this country known for its talents, regularly protagonists in the categories youths.

Eric Chelle is particularly confident in one of the “best midfielders in the world”, in his own words. With Amadou Haïdara, Yves Bissouma and Mohamed Camara, it is true that he looks great. However, the absences risk being detrimental: Ibrahima Koné, Adama “Malouda” Traoré and Cheick Doucouré are injured, while goalkeeper Mamadou Samassa declined his selection to concentrate on Stade Lavallois (French Ligue 2).

Tunisia: a level to overcome?

Third African country in the FIFA rankings (28th in the world), behind Morocco (13th) and Senegal (20th), Tunisia has rarely shone in the CAN. In 20 appearances, the Carthage Eagles have only been crowned once, in 2004, at home, after being finalists in South Africa in 1996, and in 1965, again at home.

Tunisia has unbreakable defensive solidity: the Carthage Eagles finished their qualifying campaign with only one goal conceded, the best balance among the participating teams. However, we will have to be able to go all the way as the team is in full transition with the international retirement of Whabi Khazri and an aging Youssef Msakni, while new executives are slow to emerge.

Cameroon, beware of the sleeping lion

“A lion never dies, it sleeps,” says the Cameroonian proverb. However, the Indomitable Lions seem to have fallen into a lethargy in recent months. The five-time winner of the event had difficulty qualifying, trembling until the last match of the playoffs. The current squad seems weak, with only Zambo-Anguissa and André Onana playing for top European clubs.

However, Cameroon is capable of doing its best when it is least expected, like this prestigious victory against Brazil during the World Cup in Qatar. The Indomitable Lions won't have to sleep much, because the group of death awaits them.