For a long time, Armenia relied on Russia. That seems over: Vladimir Putin is threatened with another affront by an ally. The Kremlin sends warnings.
Yerevan/Moscow – of Russia Power over the neighborhood apparently continues to crumble. The latest indication: Armenia, actually a protégé that has been bitterly dependent on Moscow for a long time, has an affront to the Kremlin in its quiver. He reacts with threats – although still off the regular diplomatic channels, but still unmistakable.
Putin threatens arrest warrant affront from the protégé – Armenia disappointed by the Kremlin
The cause of the dispute is the International Criminal Court and ultimately the arrest warrant issued by it against Vladimir Putin. Armenia’s government and judiciary have now at least cleared the way for recognition. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had already asked the Constitutional Court for an assessment in December. On Friday, the green light came for ratification of the criminal court’s founding protocol, like that portal azatutyun.am of the US broadcaster Radio Liberty reported. The judges ruled that the constitution and court shared “universal values” and goals.
It remains to be seen whether Armenia will quickly recognize the court. Legal expert Ara Zakarian said he expected ratification to be halted for the time being. But if the government in Yerevan creates facts, it would legally have to arrest its patron saint Putin during a visit to the country.
It is remarkable that it was even able to come to this. Even before the fuss about Putin’s arrest warrant, Russia did not recognize the International Criminal Court. And for a long time, Armenia relied on its great ally in Moscow: Russia is the protecting power in the sometimes bloody conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan. Russian peacekeeping forces are currently in the conflict zone.
Russia threatens dissatisfied ally Armenia: “Extremely negative consequences”
But for a long time there has been a crisis in the relationship of trust between the unequal partners. Armenia is disappointed by Moscow’s rather sluggish involvement in the conflict – even doubts about its membership in Putin’s CSTO defense alliance were growing in the fall, as journalist Irina Ghulinyan-Gerz pointed out the Heinrich Böll Foundation analyzed. Pashinyan even complained that Armenia had not received weapons that had been paid for in advance. In December he accused Moscow of not fulfilling its task. In January, Armenia canceled planned military exercises.
The alliance is still holding up to some extent: On Saturday, Russia accused Azerbaijan of violating the ceasefire agreement – Russian soldiers would “take measures” to prevent an escalation. But the Kremlin is also threatening consequences for Armenia in the criminal court dispute.
Yerevan’s plans are “absolutely unacceptable,” the state agency said Ria Novosti an unnamed informant from Sergei Lavrov’s foreign ministry. Colleagues had been warned of “extremely negative consequences” for relations with Moscow. They are incriminated anyway: Armenia, for example, has forbidden Putin’s top propagandist Margarita Simonian from entering the country, and the Duma made the ominous accusation that Armenia was an “illegal state entity” that had been unlawfully separated from the Soviet Union.
Putin’s Russia draws displeasure: “The war in Ukraine also affects us Armenians”
It remains to be seen whether the latest threats will take off. But the whole conflict could be a sign that Vladimir Putin’s “soft power” among former allies is waning. The British Research Institute RUSI judged as early as November that Russia’s sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space was “withering away” – also because the country no longer acted as a successful mediator. In the Armenia dispute, this could also be due to self-interest: According to Ghulinyan-Gerz, Russia does not want to alienate Azerbaijan as an important oil and gas transit country.
Meanwhile, concerns about the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to mount, according to a report the Deutsche Welle civilians in Yerevan are already preparing for the worst in paramilitary training sessions. In the background is the Ukraine war: “The war in Ukraine also affects us Armenians because it has created a power vacuum in the South Caucasus,” expert Tigran Grigoryan told the broadcaster. The EU fills part of the vacuum: an observer mission is present in border villages. (fn)
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