However, most initial estimates indicate that the losses may represent up to 10 percent of Turkey’s GDP, due to the impact of the destruction in the ten cities and the economic weight they represent, the required reconstruction operations, in addition to the severe effects of stopping production as well as the economic consequences at the level. The broader view of the different affected sectors.
In exclusive statements to “Sky News Arabia Economy”, Turkish economic writer Naghi Bakir specified the expected cost of rebuilding the ten cities, according to initial estimates of losses:
- From $95 billion to $100 billion, the total value of expected losses
- Approximately 300 billion Turkish liras (about 16 billion dollars) is the estimated value of the construction of destroyed buildings in the ten cities that were affected by the earthquake.
- In the case of rebuilding buildings that have seen minor damage, about another $17 billion would need to be added to the aforementioned amount
- In total, there will be a need for between 30 and 32 billion dollars only for the construction of destroyed buildings and those that were slightly damaged, which constitutes a huge burden on the state budget, in terms of doubling spending, in addition to the losses resulting from the decrease in production.
collapsed buildings
The Turkish Minister of Environment and Housing, Murat Qorum, had stated that more than 50,000 buildings “must be demolished immediately” after they were damaged by the major earthquake.
The columnist for the specialized newspaper Dunya notes, “When we take into account the damage and destruction resulting from the earthquake in each region, we will face a bill of 95 to 100 billion dollars, with its medium and long-term effects.”
He explains this by referring to the cost of restoring the infrastructure (not just the collapsed buildings), in addition to the cost of halting production in that important industrial and agricultural area.
The Turkish economic writer believes that “although the ten cities affected by the earthquake will not affect Turkey’s economic activities as much as the impact of the 1999 earthquake, they will cause a bill several times greater than this earthquake in terms of infrastructure costs.”
$100 billion
The value of the estimated losses from 95 to 100 billion in Bakir’s estimate converges with similar estimates of the Federation of Companies and Businesses in Turkey, which he published earlier, against the backdrop of the size of the damage caused by the major earthquake that hit the country, which may exceed 84 billion dollars, or the equivalent of 10 percent. percent of the country’s gross product.
However, according to a statement by the union, the devastating earthquake caused damage to residential buildings by about $70.8 billion, along with another $10.4 billion in loss of national income, according to Bloomberg.
The calculations of the Turkish Business and Business Federation were based on the 1999 earthquake, which was close to Istanbul, and claimed the lives of about 18,000 people, as the death toll from the current disaster far exceeded the 1999 earthquake, and thousands are still missing.
And the Turkish economic writer continues: “In addition to that cost is the cost of rebuilding or restoring roads, bridges, and tunnels… This requires spending huge amounts of money, depending on the extent of the damage to them, in addition to repairing and renewing most of the electricity and water lines, sewage networks, and internet infrastructure.”
He says, “In addition to its industrial character, this earthquake-hit area is also an agricultural area. Irrigation canals of all kinds have been largely damaged, and their maintenance, repair and rebuilding operations require a large budget.”
export capacity
While he sheds light on the cost of bridging the gap resulting from the loss of trained and qualified employees, and the challenges associated with the difficulty of achieving quality standards in factories affected by the loss of their cadres, he talks about the great impact of Turkish exports, and indicates that:
- It is necessary to consider the cost of efforts to restore export markets
- The total exports of the ten cities amount to more than 25 billion dollars, accounting for about 11 percent of exports
- A three-month interruption in exports means a loss of four to five billion dollars
Gaziantep alone accounts for 4.4 percent of Turkish exports, 1.6 percent for Hatay, and 1.2 percent for Adana, according to estimates published by Reuters.
tourism sector
In the conclusion of his speech, the Turkish economic writer highlights the extent to which the tourism sector was particularly affected by the consequences of the earthquake, noting that “given that the earthquakes of 1999 caused a loss of 40 percent of the revenues of the tourism sector in Turkey … the temporary cessation now of tourism activities in Ten provinces affected by the earthquake, especially in Hatay, may lead to a loss of about 10 percent of the total tourism revenue.”
In the first nine months of last year, the Turkish budget witnessed a deficit of 45.5 billion liras ($2.45 billion), and an initial surplus of 161.6 billion liras ($8.69 billion). Payments to compensate depositors’ losses amounted to 84.9 billion pounds ($4.57 billion) in that period.
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