The PP would win the regional elections next Sunday March 28 in the Region of Murcia, with more seats than the entire left but at the expense of Vox allowing it to govern alone with parliamentary support or requiring it to enter the Executive. However, there is still an important bag of undecideds, which reaches 30% of the electorate, with enough entity to alter the results.
This is indicated by the pre-election study of the Murcian Center for Public Opinion Studies (Cemop), the last survey published before the elections and which also foresees, as GAD3 and the UCAM already did, the entry of the Citizen Movement in the Assembly Regional. The survey has 1,200 telephone interviews, carried out between May 8 and 17, in the middle of the electoral campaign. The maximum statistical error is 2.9%.
allocation of seats
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allocation of seats
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of vote
Attribution
of seats and
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The popular ones would be the most voted force with a vote estimate of 40.9%, which would place them in a range of between 20 and 21 deputies. The formation of Fernando López Miras would not have an absolute majority (23 seats), but it would be the only party that can form a government. Compared to 2019, it would add 8.6 more points and, at least, 4 deputies, with the possibility of a fifth.
The second party in votes and seats would be the PSOE, with a vote estimate of 29.6% and in a range of 14-15 deputies. The Socialists would barely fall 2.8 points and a maximum of 3 deputies, with respect to the last elections, but their distance with the PP would increase, which would take more than 11 percentage points.
Vox, for its part, would stand at 15.8% of the votes, with a representation of between 7 and 8 seats in the Regional Assembly. José Ángel Antelo’s candidacy would rise 6.4 points compared to 2019, which would place it very close to doubling its representation. In addition, it would be key for the formation of a government, having in his hand to facilitate the investiture of López Miras with an agreement of the legislature or to demand the formation of a government coalition.
The candidacy of Podemos-IU-Alianza Verde would be the fourth political force, with an estimated vote of 4.6% and 2 seats. The purple formation would drop almost one point compared to 2019, although it would maintain its representation. Compared to the latest Cemop barometers, it can be seen that the left-wing coalition is losing steam, since previous surveys gave it 3 deputies.
As already predicted by the GAD3 polls for LA VERDAD and the Demoscopic Studies Observatory of the UCAM, the regional Citizen Movement would be able to enter the Assembly, reaching 3.1% of the votes. It is given between 0 and 1 seat.
Citizens, for their part, would be left without parliamentary representation by staying at 2.5% of the votes, half a point from the 3% that allows them to enter the distribution of seats.
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