A new study has shown that hurricanes are likely to become more frequent and intense in the Eastern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans during the next decade. Thanks to a research team based at the University of Reading, England, which used prognosis software of the United Kingdom’s weather office, have been able to predict hurricane patterns with even 10 years in advance.
The investigation has projected that, during the next decade, the amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic could More than duplicating Compared to the levels of the 1970s, while the activity in the Eastern Pacific could increase by more than one third.
It is also expected that the total energy of these storms, which combines their frequency, strength and duration, increases dramatically. In the North Atlantic, the energy of the storms could increase twice the levels recorded in the 1970s.
Paul-Arthur Monerie, the main author of the research at the National Center for Atmospheric Science of the University of Reading, clarified: “Until now, hurricane predictions have been like trying to see through a dense fog, since we could only distinguish what was directly in front of us. ” “A better forecast clears that fog and reveals patterns that will occur years later. Our study shows that Hurricanes activity will increase to 2030which will give everyone more time to prepare and protect yourself, “said Monerie.
The study, published this month in Climate and Atmospheric Science, used the Climate Prediction Software Depresys4 of the weather office and a monitoring algorithm to forecast future hurricane patterns. The study marks an important advance in hurricane prediction by tracking individual storms within simulations, instead of depending on indicators such as sea level pressure or sea surface temperature patterns.
Ten -year prediction
While direct storm monitoring is already used for short -term forecasts of days or months, this is the first time that hurricane patterns have been successfully applied until a decade before. This long -term vision provides communities with an unprecedented perspective on Future storm risks.
The increase provided in hurricane activity is linked to Two key environmental factors: The surface temperatures of the ocean and wind patterns in the atmosphere. The prognosis system shows that the temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean are probable are higher in the coming years, which would provide more energy for hurricanes to form and intensify.
At the same time, changes in wind patterns are expected to believe more favorable conditions For hurricane development. These changes are driven by a combination of natural climatic variations and long -term climatic trends.
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