VEB Bank expects total Russian natural gas exports to fall this year to 100 billion cubic meters from 131 billion cubic meters in 2022.
According to Reuters calculations, exports of Kremlin-controlled Gazprom to Europe via pipelines have fallen to about 17.7 billion cubic meters so far this year.
Europe greatly reduced its purchases of Russian oil and gas after the start of what Moscow described as a special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. Europe was able to overcome the energy crisis that was feared to occur in the winter of 2022-2023 thanks to its efforts to reduce energy consumption and find other suppliers.
According to VIP forecasts, Russian gas exports to Europe are expected to drop to 15 billion cubic meters in 2026, while Russia will not be able to increase gas supplies to Asia much due to infrastructure constraints.
VEP also expects Russian crude oil exports to drop to 230 million tons (4.6 million barrels per day) this year from 248 million in 2022, with a possible drop in supplies to the European Union to 41 million tons from 115 million tons.
Earlier on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia would extend its voluntary cut in oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year to “maintain stability and balance” in oil markets.
VIP expects Russian oil exports to rise to 239 million tons in 2026, thanks to boosting exports to China and India.
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