Spain closes the year 2024 with housing prices through the roof. And it is that he real estate sector is going through one of its most complicated moments. In the second quarter, an increase of 7.8% was recorded. But the most discouraging thing is that this situation seems to continue over time.
This is confirmed by the Juan Moreno Martínez de Leceafinancial analyst Bankinter: «We have had housing prices rising for ten years. We are facing a historic moment. “There has never been the lack of supply that occurs in this cycle.”
The expert explained how the course will end: «We reached 2024 in which the inertia was positive in prices. When we thought it could slow down, the interest rate reduction has arrived. Not only have they not slowed down, but they have accelerated. We believe that the year will end with increases of around 8%».
What will happen to house prices in 2025 in Spain
On the other hand, Juan Moreno Martínez de Lecea indicates what will happen to the price of housing in 2025. «What we foresee is that it will continue to rise above inflation. We have revised our estimates upwards. We have gone from 4% to 5%,” he says.
From Bankinter they clarify thatThe most affected areas will be the large cities, the Mediterranean coast and islands. “Due to population concentration and foreign demand”they add.
The real estate expert points out that the reduction in interest rates will act as a «new revulsive». “We hope that next year the reductions by the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue until reaching levels slightly above 2%,” he adds.
A new real estate bubble, for the moment, distant
Juan Moreno Martínez de Lecea declares that the indicators “do not point to a real estate bubble”. «In Spain, the historical cost of housing has been around seven times the gross disposable income of households. Right now we are below that average. Since 2023 we have seen how it has been adjusted without the need for prices to fall,” he says.
The Bankinter expert says that there is also a huge problem of supply and demand: «We have a very significant supply deficit and it will only get worse, at least in the next two years.
A “complicated” future for the rental market
Juan Moreno Martínez de Lecea has also spoken about the rental market and has confirmed that a “complicated” future. «The supply problem is even more serious. Furthermore, the Housing law approved by the Government has only aggravated the situation. “The moment the owner sees that they are going to regulate and limit it, he does two things: either he withdraws it from the market or he automatically raises the price.”
«Today, rental housing is at very demanding levels. “Many young people are being forced to buy because they cannot afford to pay the rent.”reflects the real estate expert.
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