When talking about the golden age of banking, you always think of those years prior to the 2008 crisis that the banks lent double -digit money and the spring Credit seemed not to be exhausted before a buoyant demand. There has not been an equal time for this sector in terms of profitability, in many cases also in terms of benefits and, consequently, in terms of the value of its stock market actions.
Once the crisis broke out with the bankrupt Spred of your business. Regulators in turn began to press a consolidation and recapitalization in the sector that avoids or limited future Shocks.
To do this, among other things, the bank threw dividends into scrip, Capital extensions and debt emissions convertible to capital, such as coconuts, which then lived their particular birth. This has caused that throughout the last and a half decade these companies have added a capital to their stock market value that has not been matched in the price of their shares.
The proof is that BBVA and Sabadell have reached their maximum capitalization of history this yearthus joining CaixaBank and Unicaja, who already presented their largest size. Bankinter, on the other hand, touches that level that reached in 2018 while Santander is the only one that still has to grow since its current capitalization is 7.5% lower than its plusmarca.
In the case of BBVA, it already reaches a stock value of 73.4 billion euros, 20,000 below Santander, which is higher in the national market. Sabadell, on the other hand, is already 14,290 million thanks also partly to the open OPA on it by the Basques, than to succeed and finally integrate the Catalan without uploading the offer more, would approach the size of the Cantabrians.
In the face of the investor, however, what really matters is his pocket and that translates into the price of his shares since the Scrips And what they have done is dilute over these years if they have not obtained more titles. At this time and after A revaluation of the sector of 73% in the last two years Thanks to the interest rates cycle, there are two banks, Caixa and Bankinter, which are quoted in historical maximums. Unicaja, where appropriate, It is barely 2% up to reach them.
On the other hand, if we serve the banks that precisely have more history as quoted and suffered that crisis of 2008, Their current prices are very far from those of the time. Sabadell, in fact, is the most flagrant case because Its action is worth 57% less That its historical maximum marked at 6.2 euros in 2007 while, by joint value in the stock market, it had never been so worth so much. Santander’s title too It is worth half of what has come to assert in 2007 while in BBVA came to quote above 19 euros, 30% more of its current level.
This decourely is explained by an important recapitalization process after Crash of 2008, which was carried out with capital extensions, payments in scrip and emission of convertible bonds In Capital Tier 1. It is also explained by the consolidation that has been in the Spanish bank, first with the disappearance of the boxes and their lace in Liberbank, which would later join Unicaja, the merger of Bankia with Caixabank, the absorption of popular by Santander and now open BBVA on Sabadell. On the other hand, some part of that capital increase has been compensated through the repurchases of shares that have been carried out in recent years, to subsequently amortize.
A more expensive bid
This coincides with a key moment for the Spanish sector in general and two companies in particular, such as BBVA and Sabadell, immersed in a corporate operation. In this case, the price of shares and the size of the companies play a main role in the future of the OPA since it is a exchange of shares and not an cash offer, their stock market values raise and cut the proposal premium.
In this context, therefore, the prices currently reached by one bank have erased the entire BBVA offer premium even including the cash dividend that will pay 0.29 euros to Sabadell’s shareholders, the shareholders of Sabadell. Beyond this are two companies that They do not have bullish potential some for the consensus of analysts that collects Bloombergalthough Yes have a purchase recommendation.
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