In December, a few days after the appointment of François Bayrou was announced, the French prime minister stated that he believed in the existence of “a path” to get out of the political blockade that the country has been experiencing since last summer. In 2024, four heads of government succeeded one another in the residence of the Hôtel de Matignon, including the ephemeral mandate of Michel Barnier, overthrown last December by a motion of censure that simultaneously led to the Assembly’s rejection of the budgets.
“Maybe it’s the delirious optimism of someone who doesn’t want to see reality,” Bayrou explained then, in his first interview on television. “But what I can say for sure is that if we don’t succeed, we are at the last station before reaching the edge of the cliff.”
The rejection of the first motion of censure presented against him reinforces the itinerary that the still mayor of Pau has outlined for himself – a position that he continues to combine with that of prime minister. Registered by the left-wing party Francia Insumisa (LFI), the motion received 131 votes in favor this Thursday (far from the 288 necessary); It was supported by almost all of the rebellious, environmentalist and communist deputies, in addition to eight from the Socialist Party (PS).
The other 58 socialist parliamentarians decided not to vote to censure Bayrou and his Government. It is the first time since the creation of the New Popular Front (NFP), the alliance in the Assembly of progressive forces, that the PS does not vote on a motion with the rest of the left. In the coming days it will be possible to measure the consequences that this decision by the socialists will have on the coalition of left-wing parties.
From LFI they point out that it is the “death certificate” of the New Popular Front. “The PS breaks the NFP. But he capitulates alone. The other three groups vote in favor of censure. We continue to fight,” reacted the party leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in X. At the same time, Manuel Bompard, national coordinator of the party, announced that in the next elections “there will be LFI candidates against all the deputies who have chosen to support François Bayrou.”
The other two formations of the NFP, communists and environmentalists, do not consider the rupture consummated and have announced that, despite having supported censorship, they will also continue negotiating with the Executive regarding the budgets (LFI has refused to participate in the conversations). . The environmentalist general secretary, Marine Tondelier, acknowledged that so far the conversations with the Government “had, in part, borne fruit,” partially validating the Socialist Party’s approach.
Concessions
The socialists defend that the political sequence that has led them to abstention is a victory. And they argue that, after days of negotiations with the Government, they have managed to get Bayrou to abandon the plan to eliminate 4,000 positions in public education, increase the number of days of paid sick leave for civil servants and increase the tax on financial transactions.
Regarding the pension reform approved by decree in 2023 – a key point in the talks – they believe they have received the necessary guarantees from the prime minister. In addition to announcing the reopening of talks with social actors, Bayrou committed in a letter sent this week to the presidents of the socialist groups of the National Assembly and the Senate to present a bill to modify the 2023 reform, both whether an agreement is reached in those negotiations or not.
“Our vocation is to achieve all possible victories,” declared the general secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, in his speech in the National Assembly on Thursday, adding that they want to embody “a left that makes the Government give in.”
Last minute decision
In fact, the socialists’ decision was debated until the last minute in a meeting of the national board. Divided over the position to adopt, in the end the line of the deputies who defended abstention – supported among others by François Hollande, according to several French media – ended up prevailing.
“We have chosen not to practice the politics of the greatest evil, because it can lead to the greatest of all evils: the arrival of the extreme right,” Faure argued in his speech to the Assembly. “We are in the opposition and we will continue to be. And if we have the feeling that the debate is blocked, if everything seems a mere farce, we will present a motion of censure,” he warned.
The announcement by the extreme right in the previous days about their abstention frustrated any possibility of the motion of censure succeeding. But the decision of the socialists was important because it had to mark a line for the future and the next motions that are expected during the processing of the budget. That was the moment that Marine Le Pen chose in December to join her votes with those of the left and bring down Michel Barnier.
To avoid the same fate as Barnier, François Bayrou – who has the same parliamentary support as his predecessor, which includes the center and right-wing parties (210 seats in a fragmented Assembly) – has opted for a different strategy. He has made an effort to negotiate the abstention of the socialists, when Barnier chose to bet everything on Le Pen. That is why some of the socialist deputies in favor of abstention argued that voting in favor of censure could push Bayrou to prioritize negotiations with the extreme right.
Budget negotiation
This week’s vote marks a first victory for Bayrou’s strategy. However, he will be a prime minister under surveillance, in this case of the PS, just as his predecessor was under the watchful eye of the National Rally (Le Pen’s party).
At the same time, the gestures sent to the socialists come at a cost for the prime minister: on the one hand, they unsettle the right wing of his coalition; On the other hand, the elimination of measures aimed at alleviating debt forces it to look for savings in other items.
Looking ahead to the processing of the budget texts in the coming weeks, the new Minister of Economy, Éric Lombard, will play a decisive role. Senior civil servant, social democrat and advisor to several socialist governments of the 90s, he has good relations with several leaders of the PS, including its general secretary, and with Emmanuel Macron’s party.
This Friday Lombard stated that he considered that there was already an “agreement” with the Socialist Party regarding the budgets. “Thanks to yesterday’s decision [jueves]”We will have a budget,” said the minister, interviewed on the BFM-TV/RMC cafe. For Lombard, the decision of the socialists “has been based on the commitments made with the prime minister, which establish the most important elements for the budget.” “But it is up to the Socialist Party to express its point of view, to confirm that we have an agreement,” he said.
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