Nothing new is going to be explained for the European Union in 2025. We all have great goals and with the community bloc it was not going to be less, but Above all, he inherits challenges that he must face with increasing urgency.. “Decisions must be made,” point out several community sources consulted by 20 minutesfollowing the line, for example, of the president of the European Parliament just a week ago: “We have done a lot, but we have to do more. Next year we have to take a step forward“The coming year is full of challenges for Europe and it will be its result that will shape its role before the US and China.
From internal reforms to its place in the world. That duties the European Union has on its agenda for the year that now begins?
A paradigm shift internally
The EU wants to understand the new world, but above all it has to take advantage of 2025 to adapt to it. Talking about a change in the Treaties seems impossible, but that does not mean “that the current one cannot be widened”they repeat in Brussels, alleging for example that “during the pandemic the Union barely had powers in Health and they met.” That may happen over the next few months for topics like energy, military investment or aid to companies. This reform of support to Member States is a pending account, as is a lesser presence of unanimity in decision-making. “It’s about gaining agility,” the sources emphasize.
In this change of internal model, the Draghi report is a warning to sailors. The new “whatever is necessary” from the former president of the European Central Bank includes the most important message of all, although it sounds generic: The EU has to face “radical changes” because if it does not it runs the risk of “losing its reason for being” in a fierce scenario, increasingly competitive against the United States and China. Draghi has room in the report to make specific, and even surprising, criticisms. “With this legislation that we have given ourselves, we are actually being counterproductive, we are killing our companies,” he explains.
Precisely before Washington and Beijing the Union is late, and that is why Draghi warns that “a massive increase” in investment is needed to close the gap that exists with respect to the two main competitors in industrial matters. Right now the EU is much less competitive than it should be. “The only way to be more productive is for Europe to change radically,” says the Italian ‘guru’ in his report. The calculation he makes is that this investment has to amount to 800,000 million euros annually.
Trump 2.0 and what we learned in the past
Taking a long look, it can be seen as an opportunity for a ‘resurgence’ of Europe, but the truth is that Donald Trump’s victory in the United States presidential election and his return to the White House catches the European Union at a very moment. delicate. Nobody talks about shock, or a very hard blow, but it is an electric shock. on the foundations of the bloc, but especially on the agenda of the next legislature and priorities. The Union has to hurry up and stop talking only about strategic autonomy; It has to fill it with content at a time of maximum uncertainty.
In Brussels they appeal to “the lessons learned” regarding 2016 and the Commission has already carried out work with a group of experts to prepare the bloc for Trump’s return, which is now a reality. Of course, the Union remains immersed in a deep economic crisis, while it resolves its gaps in industry and its deficiencies in Defense, at the same time that it sees a significant rise of the radical right and has the most divided European Parliament in decades. Furthermore, the Berlin-Paris axis is going through its worst moment: Macron is worn out in France and the Scholz Government has fallen. Of course, the sources ask “to flee from the chaos and drama and get to work.”
Defense yes or Defense no?
These learnings have Defense as a fundamental pillar. This is not a turn towards war, but from a productive point of view. Thus, the European Commission proposes three key elements: jointly acquire at least 40% of Defense equipment between now and 2030; ensure that, by 2030, the value of defense trade within the EU represents at least 35% of the value of the EU defense market and also move steadily towards procurement of at least 50% of its defense budget defense within the EU by 2030 and 60% by 2035. The first steps have to be taken in the year that now begins.
The key is to “work more together and work better” because only in this way can we stop depending on NATO. An Atlantic Alliance where Trump precisely puts pressure, pushing States to invest up to 5% of GDP in the military and using it as blackmail if the EU does not want a trade war. That or Europe buying more liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil from Washington. All this does not push the European Union towards a common army, that remains a chimera, but 2025 could be the year for there to be a common fund for European production and for military development, with a model similar to that of the pandemic recovery fund.
The eternal debate on migration
No one has any doubts either that migration will play a central role in the EU next year as well. In fact, in March the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is expected to present a new plan on returns that does, in fact, include the idea of migrant detention centers. “A stronger legislative framework will be one of the main proposals of the new College and a proposal for a new common approach on returns will be presented before the European Council in March,” explained the German in a letter sent to the capitals.
This falls within the “innovative solutions” that the German spoke about when taking ‘possession’ of her second term at the head of the Community Executive. However, it is a plan promoted by the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who has already launched these centers in Albania; Yes, that route is already immersed in judicial dilemmas at the national level. Meloni has insisted this week that “they will work” and has at least ten member states that welcome that idea. For now, only Spain is openly opposed to this proposal because it considers it “temporary” and “ineffective.” The challenge in 2025 is, in this scenario, that the common pact on migration and asylum, scheduled to operate in 2026 but which may be brought forward, can come into force.
The role of the EU in the world
Externally, the EU needs to strengthen its role in the world. Regarding China, the tone is going to rise, with orders such as sanctions for public investment in electric cars, but also with friction with large technology companies or their influence in Africa; Brussels also wants to take this step with the so-called Global Gateway, already in force and which consists of increasing investments, for example in the neighboring continent. This power of ‘conviction’ is also part of the fight with Moscow and Beijing and also applies to Latin America, with whom the EU-Mercosur trade agreement is pending ratification.
That’s where the debate comes in. extension. But there are no big tangible steps expected in 2025. “It is a priority,” said the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, with Montenegro as the candidate country most advanced in the process but which does not foresee completing it, at best, before 2028. But that does not mean that progress cannot be made, and the EU wants The year that begins will serve to continue “bringing closer” the Western Balkans, Ukraine or Moldova to the bloc community. That is, an extension that looks like a staircase and consists of climbing steps until you reach the top. “It is a process based on merit,” they reiterate in Brussels.
No, 2025 will not be a year in itself, but the continuation of 2024 or rather of the dynamics that have been seen since 2020. Times have changed and the EU has to adapt to it, with more pressure from the rest of the actors because to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is added the return to the past of the United States and a China that, without wanting to go into a direct collision, is also changing the paradigm to lead different sectors. The European Union knows the theory, but it always has to put it into practice. And get it right.
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