Comparing the fate of Carthage with the risks facing the European Union would be going too far. One can speak, however, of a common factor: the internal confrontation between two opposing projects.
Carthage fell 2,171 years ago. The city that the Phoenicians had founded, and which had grown to become a powerful empire that rivaled Rome, disappeared. Its population was exterminated by the Romans, in what could be considered the most perfect genocide that humanity has known.
The tragedy of Carthage had begun long before the third and final Punic War, and it had begun from within: the oligarchy that ran the empire was divided into two radically opposed fronts. One side advocated commercial expansion and, therefore, an army capable of protecting the merchant fleet and confronting Roman rivals. The other side was made up of large landowners who aspired to maintain their immense North African estates and achieve some kind of peace, even if it included submission, with Rome.
When the landowners prevailed and expelled the merchant-militaries, led by the Barca clan, they surrendered to Rome. But Rome demanded as a condition that Carthage be destroyed by the Carthaginians themselves. Then the Barcas returned and a fierce defense was organized, ultimately useless, against Scipio Aemilianus’ troops, who spent months conquering house by house. Carthage was wiped off the map.
Comparing the fate of Carthage with the risks facing the European Union would be going too far. One can speak, however, of a common factor: the internal confrontation between two opposing projects. One, more or less social democratic, cosmopolitan, commercial, theoretically pacifist (under the umbrella of NATO) and supposedly humanist, has predominated until now. Another, nationalist one, prone to protectionism and xenophobia, is on the rise.
The year that is about to begin, 2025, will be critical for the European Union. And it comes under the most adverse circumstances. The dangers can be grouped into two fronts.
Donald Trump returns to the presidency of the United States with the threat of imposing tariffs on imports (up to 25%, he says) and with the demand that each NATO partner allocate 5% of its budget to military spending. From Washington’s point of view, this attitude may be justifiable in the short term. The United States is the largest consumer in the world and European exports depend on its market. It is also the largest weapons manufacturer. A trade war with the United States, combined with a drastic increase in military spending (now few NATO countries manage to allocate 2% to that item), would mean a crisis of unpredictable scope for the European Union.
Combined with the foreseeable pressure from Trump, and with the methodical commercial and strategic expansion of China, the temporary (or definitive, we will see) political fragility of the European Union appears.
Its main economic power, Germany, is fooling around with recession and is awaiting elections. The second pillar, France, cannot control its public debt and has a president, Emmanuel Macron, whose technocratic-conservative project may be considered shipwrecked. The third most important country, Italy, has a far-right government. And in Spain, with good macroeconomic data, the government is going through a phase of serious turbulence.
The Commission itself, chaired by Ursula von der Leyen who repeats her mandate as a lesser evil and leans towards xenophobic positions (with the absurd idea of concentration camps for immigrants, already failed in Italy), is an element of fragility. To all this we must add the war in Ukraine.
The second front is that of foreign interference. In recent years it has been the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who has promoted misinformation through social networks and has done everything possible to influence different elections. The last one, in Romania. Also, through European governments that sympathize with Moscow (Hungary offers the clearest example), it plays to divide the EU.
Now it is the richest tycoon in the world, Elon Musk, who seems to protect Donald Trump’s second term from his technological empire, who comes into play. Musk has already announced his support for the German far-right AfD and is considering a massive endorsement of Reform, the Trumpist party founded by Nigel Farage that was involved in Brexit. According to Farage himself, Musk could provide him with up to $100 million. Through his network
2025 will be an interesting year.
#interesting #year
