The airspace was underestimated, the weapon was overestimated: analyses indicate that the Ukrainian Air Force is overwhelmed. The F-16s have so far been useless.
Kiev – Ukraine needs a strategy that combines air and ground operations, write David Deptula and Christopher Bowie. “Only through this integrated approach, which creates synergy between operations on the ground and in the air, can Ukraine create and maintain momentum on the battlefield,” claim the two analysts from the think tank Mitchell InstituteThe F-16 alone can do little to help against Vladimir Putin. On the contrary: “Ukraine’s F-16 dilemma is bigger than one would think at first glance,” Ralph D. Thiele recently told the magazine FocusOnline.
The former colonel publicly warns that a system needs to be built around the western fighter jet and that Ukraine is acting too aggressively in its efforts to defend itself; between the lines of his interview with the Focus He accuses the defenders of being responsible for their first lost aircraft – although it is still unproven that the Ukraine accidentally shot down the F-16 itself, Thiele assumes this to be the case.
“The recent appearance of F-16 fighter jets in the skies over Ukraine is a victory for all Ukrainians and especially for the relatively small group of people who worked tirelessly to push forward the idea of delivering the aircraft.”
Perhaps Ukraine was too quick to celebrate – that is what Olena Tregub suspects: “The recent appearance of F-16 fighter jets in the skies over Ukraine is a victory for all Ukrainians and especially for the relatively small group of people who worked tirelessly to push the idea of supplying the aircraft. The push to acquire F-16 aircraft began as a grassroots initiative by Ukrainian civil society and the military before being taken up by the country’s political leadership,” writes the Ukrainian Defense Ministry employee for the think tank Atlantic Council.
Ukraine’s flying NATO artillery has largely flopped so far
The British Guardian spoke of statements by US military officials that years of training are necessary to be able to use F-16s effectively in combat. This limits the influence of these aircraft on the defense of Ukraine in the near future: “It is about long-term support of Ukraine,” Pentagon spokesman Ryder told the Guardian. “It is not about the counter-offensive that they are currently conducting.” New York Times Anonymous voices spoke out, suggesting that one reason for the crash of the first Ukrainian F-16 was “a bureaucratic command structure that all too often rewarded those who did not question authority and whose thinking was possibly outdated.”
Compared to the Focus speculates Thielethat Ukraine may be underestimating the combat space and – in comparison – overestimating the effectiveness of the F-16. The F-16 will primarily be used as flying artillery, experts suspect. Air battles between two opposing aircraft are unlikely. Modern fighter jets are so technically advanced that they only face each other directly in the air in exceptional cases. Equipped with computers, sensors, decoys and self-guided missiles, the jets fight from great distances – both in the air and against targets on the ground,” writes the Bundeswehr in its magazineazin Y.
Ukraine also uses time as a factor against Russia: more jets, more pilots, more experience
“These are not tasks that can be solved by delivering a few aircraft. They are highly complex operations that require years of preparation,” said retired Colonel Thiele in FocusA handful of planes with a small group of pilots can hardly do that, said Thiele. The loss of this first western fighter jet is now a heavy burden on the future of the Ukraine war – according to the forecast of the think tank Institute for the Study of WarThis loss of a single F-16 aircraft will significantly affect Ukraine’s air defense, as only a limited number of jets and trained pilots are available, writes the ISW.
Olena Tregub expressed more confidence in early August, relying on the time factor: With a larger number of F-16s in the coming months and a growing pool of pilots in terms of mindset and experience, “we will probably see these jets used for more adventurous purposes,” such as for Atlantic Council writes. This could be followed by long-range attacks on Russian planes and helicopters operating near the front lines, predicts Tregub. However, she is initially concerned with better protecting the civilian population by making the air defense more seamless and effective.
Ukraine now uses air surveillance against Russian missiles
Which they are probably already doing quite well – if the F-16 was actually shot down by their own people. “In addition, the air war takes place in a highly segmented airspace, which makes it difficult to distinguish friend from foe,” Thiele told the FocusIn addition to the discussion about the machines themselves and their armament, he misses the system in which the jets would have to be integrated in order to be fully functional – both in the air and on the ground.
In the air, the Ukrainian Air Force would have to be embedded in extensive reconnaissance by satellites and AWACS aircraft (Airborne Early Warning and Control System); aircraft with mushroom-shaped superstructures. As the magazine The Aviationist reports that Sweden announced in May that it would provide Ukraine with two Saab 340B AEW&
C aircraft. The surveillance range of the system is said to extend over 500,000 square kilometers in radius and at an altitude of almost 20 kilometers, according to the Aviation writes.
Fighter aircraft, hovering helicopters, cruise missiles and even sea targets as small as a jet ski – or a surface drone – are to be depicted on it. According to Thiele, this would be a much-needed support for making the F-16 effective. However, even this has only been a partial success. David Deptula and Christopher Bowie see weaknesses in the coordination between the detection of threats from the air, the air defense command and the means of action. As the alleged shooting down of their own F-16 seems to have proven, there is a lack of fast friend-or-foe recognition in aerial reconnaissance and the secure transmission of this information to the actual ground-based air defense.
The ‘fleet in the making’ against Putin will probably be a long time coming
Christopher Koeltzow, Brent Peterson and Eric Williams calculate that Ukraine needs almost twelve fighter squadrons to provide the air support required for the ground war. Both believe that a larger air fleet is necessary for the core tasks of the F-16: suppression of enemy air defenses, air defense against cruise missiles and defensive air defense from the ground. “This goal would require 216 F-16s with 18 aircraft per squadron,” write the analysts of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“In order to create a strategic ‘fleet in the making’ that Russia must respect, the size of the F-16 fleet is important,” they write. Observers have long warned against using the machines out of blind actionism – so far Ukraine has not revealed any strategy for using them. The use of the first F-16 also appears to have been a solo flight rather than a more compact attack within a specific strategy. It is possible that the weapons will be used in Ukraine differently than the military in the West wanted and the engineers then implemented.
As was evident from the use of the Western tanks, as Thiele recalls: “The current project with the F-16 is a huge risk that could only produce the desired benefits in a few years if it is successful.”
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