F1 | Red Bull: Horner has built a two-year plan for Verstappen

A few lines, communicated in the middle of the summer break, have put an end to a story that risked bringing down the most successful Formula 1 team in recent years. The ‘Horner’ affair is definitively closed, the Red Bull employee who had filed a complaint for inappropriate behavior has exercised her right of appeal (after an initial investigation that had exonerated Horner) with an independent lawyer for the company.

The legal process concluded and the outcome arrived: the appeal was not accepted. In order to have the clearest possible vision of the future of Red Bull Racing (in the short and long term), the final act was necessary, made official on August 8. A sort of stamp that concluded a reorganization that occurred after the tumultuous events that began last February. Christian Horner remains the reference figure of the team.

However, Horner’s success is not an all-round success, not in line with the ‘coup’ that last March seemed a possible and even probable scenario. In the hottest week of this story, that is, the one between the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grand Prix, Horner (supported by the majority shareholder of the Red Bull Group, Chalerm Yoovidhya) seemed very close to the final blow that would have allowed him to get rid of Helmut Marko.

Surprisingly, however, the famous contractual clause emerged that would have allowed Verstappen (in the event of the Austrian manager’s team leaving) to be able to in turn release himself from the contract that ties him to Red Bull Racing until the end of 2028. Horner had to take note of a crucial footnote (unknown to him) and from that moment he began a long diplomatic operation.

The mended rift with Marko protects Verstappen

There is one aspect that goes beyond the earthquake that occurred in Milton Keynes. Horner, Verstappen and Marko are doing very well in Red Bull, none of them have ever had anything to complain about, neither on the financial front nor on the climate that has been established within the team for years. When the spirits calmed down, Horner understood the need for a quick step back with respect to Marko and that he needed the Austrian CEO Oliver Mintzlaff to recover relations with the Austrian headquarters.

In exchange, however, he received an important compensation: Marko agreed to retract the ‘Verstappen’ clause, guaranteeing in addition that he will remain firmly in his position until the end of 2026. This step was crucial in view of keeping Verstappen in the team, since Max will no longer be able to opt out of the current contract in the next two years.

In late spring, Horner realized that the technical superiority with which the team began the 2024 world championship had gradually faded, the idea that Red Bull could also do without Verstappen to reach the world titles quickly faded. Paradoxically, the loss of technical supremacy was a factor that played a lot in favor of Max, who became a crucial added value for achieving the objectives. Horner at that point tried in every possible way to guarantee Max a perfect comfort zone, from the stable presence of Marko to the decision not to enter the driver market to evaluate a potential replacement for Sergio Perez.

The desire to quickly restore maximum tranquility within the team (this also explains the announcement of Checo’s renewal) was not only dictated by the quiet life, but also by the need to be able to dedicate all the energies to working on the team, without dangerous external distractions. Indispensable energies in the scenario of values ​​on the field that has taken shape since the beginning of the summer.

Jonathan Wheatley, Red Bull team manager who will leave the Milton Keynes team for Audi

Photo credit: Red Bull Content Pool

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The Weight of Newey and Wheatley’s Goodbyes

Adrian Newey and Jonathan Wheatley’s stories have little in common, except that they resigned a few months apart. These are departures of great importance for the

Red Bull, and paradoxically the impression is that the team was taken aback by the resignation of the historic sporting director. Newey’s farewell has been the talk of the town for months, but beyond the repercussions that the departure of ‘Genius’ will bring, the team had structured itself over the years to face this moment. The final judgement will be up to the track, but the handover with Pierre Waché was so rapid that it makes one think of a plan that had been ready for some time in Horner’s drawer.

However, there remains a fear linked to the resignations of Newey and, above all, Wheatley: the risk of witnessing the departure of other personnel. Newey has always had some trusted dolphins, but these are few roles, while in the case of Wheatley there is the risk that he could draw heavily to satisfy the acquisition campaign launched by Audi, looking for over 200 people at the Swiss headquarters in Hinwil. The now ex-sporting director of Red Bull has a great specific knowledge of the personnel who work on the track as well as at the headquarters in Milton Keynes, and this for Horner could translate into a significant thorn in the side.

Christian Horner, Team Principal Red Bull Racing

Photo credit: Red Bull Content Pool

2026 will be a crucial step for the future

For Horner, the real gamble will be the 2026 season, a real all-in. There will be a lot at stake: Max’s future, the caliber of Waché’s technical staff grappling with a completely new project and the competitiveness of the first engine made by the power unit department. The final verdict will also end up influencing Horner’s position. Marko has guaranteed his presence until the end of 2026, when Dr. Helmut will have turned 83.

It is difficult to imagine a further contract renewal that would force him to remain at the forefront, and at that point the door could open for Horner to take over the team entirely. Horner has always held the role of team principal since 2005, but decisions regarding drivers and large-scale investments have always required Marko’s approval. If all goes well, in 2027, after 22 years at the team, Horner will finally have the baton of command.

In 2026, Verstappen will most likely still be racing with Red Bull, and will have a great interest in evaluating the potential of the first single-seater built entirely in Milton Keynes. Leaving Red Bull at the end of next year would not be a risk-free move, as it is impossible to predict which of the top teams will be able to start ahead of everyone with the new technical cycle. Changing sides would mean signing for at least two years, with the risk of missing the right train, staying at Red Bull in 2026 would allow Verstappen to evaluate the general scenario carefully.

If everything goes well in Milton Keynes, the fears of a Red Bull without Marko will vanish, in front of a winning single-seater everything will fade into the background. If instead the verdicts are confirmed as disappointing, it will not be a big problem for Max to find an alternative, given that at the end of 2026 Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Aston Martin will have at least one driver whose contracts expire. Perfect timing to go on the market.