It will not be difficult to predict who will win the US presidential election, as the majority will vote for Donald Trump, the former president and Republican Party candidate. Perhaps this definitive prediction is a bit risky, as most of the predictions that came before many previous US presidential elections were unable to determine the real winner, and the predictions are always far from the final result.
An example of this is the opinion polls that preceded the penultimate presidential election, which nominated Hillary Clinton to win based on polls conducted over a relatively long period of time. Those polls did not predict Trump’s victory, but the final result came in his favor, to everyone’s astonishment.
So there is no definitive opinion or prediction about the elections before the results come in. As for the numerical side, the US presidential race is expected to be decided by 187 votes in the 538-vote Electoral College.
These votes are divided among 11 states and two congressional districts: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and two congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine. While there are 187 contested votes, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is likely to win a fair number of votes in states that typically vote Democratic or lean toward them. These votes come from so-called “swing” states, which are states where neither party dominates the other, and are therefore the primary target for US presidential candidates to win their votes. While Republican candidate Donald Trump is expected to secure 125 votes, this means that he needs to get more than 187 votes than Biden.
The analysis, reported by an American newspaper, is based on data from three nonpartisan organizations. A map showing possible outcome scenarios indicates that some states are critical for Trump to reach the 270 votes he needs to secure victory in the election.
The map indicates that Biden has a lot of votes there, according to the last elections. Therefore, it becomes more important for Trump to win more votes in these crucial places mentioned above. For example, the newspaper indicates that Biden’s victory in Florida means that Trump will inevitably win another state such as Ohio, while if Biden loses Florida, he will have other opportunities to compensate for this loss. In any case, regardless of who wins this election, American policy will change only to a very small extent, including the field of foreign relations. The role of the president in the American political system is primarily to implement this pre-established policy, as evidenced by the existence of many decisions that require obtaining congressional approval in order for them to become real decisions in effect!
* Kuwaiti writer
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