A weekend of truth
We were waiting for the answers from the track Suzuka and the exact ones have arrived. The overall picture is now decidedly clear and the Japanese weekend has explained a lot of the values on the track in Formula 1 at the moment, let's see the most interesting ideas.
Ferrari growth is the most obvious theme
The race was won and dominated by Red Bull, but the step forward made by the Maranello team is certified on such an important track in terms of several aspects: the first, very long and constant, Leclerc's stint on medium tyre closes any possible doubts about the tire management of the SF24, which is decidedly first level, confirming a car that finally makes the tires work perfectly in stabilized conditions (while the story in qualifying is different, but this is a different topic). In the end, despite their positions on the grid, both Maranello cars beat the McLarens, on a track that was decidedly favorable to the MCL38, confirming an excellent level of load expressed by the SF24, which could probably still be maximized.
Today Ferrari is solidly second strength, with good growth prospects given the feeling that the ideas are decidedly clear in Maranello. The “mechanical” difficulties at the rear already seem to have significantly decreased, but the overall performance clearly still needs to improve. An aspect on which it is essential to work immediately is to find a way to extract the maximum potential from the tires on the flying lap, because if the Red Bull is already very difficult to approach or beat, starting several rows back makes any hope in vain.
In this regard it is interesting to note that from our calculations Sainz's final hard tire stint was the best on track. In fact, we compared stint after stint of Verstappen, Perez and Sainz as they were the only ones with a truly comparable strategy for a comparison, and despite the overtaking he had to make on Norris and Leclerc, the Spaniard with the number 55 found an average on the hard tire just faster than Verstappen too. In the first stint Sainz had suffered a heavy delay, of almost 6 tenths per lap in the first fraction, due to the need to stay behind and at a distance from Norris' McLaren, while in the central part Verstappen's average advantage stood at half a second per lap on both Perez and Sainz, but in this case it is necessary to remember the numerous overtakings that the two drivers had to make in pursuit of the pacesetter, who instead only had to pass Leclerc in his run-up. Considering only the laps free from traffic, we calculated a time advantage of Verstappen over Sainz estimated at between 3 tenths and 3 and a half tenths. In the last stint, on hard tyre, Sainz was the fastest, with Verstappen practically tied and Perez 2 tenths slower. This data is a confirmation that the SF24 works properly even when the tank is emptied and the car becomes lighter, and that therefore the difficulty encountered in qualifying is entirely inherent in bringing the tires to temperature in the correct way in order to extract maximum performance on the dry ride.
McLaren third strong but disappointed
Behind Ferrari, McLaren is currently the third force on the track. The team led by Andrea Stella, however, found a performance below expectations. If Ferrari has halved the gap from Red Bull compared to last season, McLaren has actually increased it, also with a strategic choice for Norris that is difficult to understand, with the Briton stopped together with Leclerc (and therefore freezing him behind him), to avoid losing the position on Russell, who however was on a completely different strategy. Furthermore, Norris still returned to the track behind the Mercedes driver, but passed him again after a few corners as he could reasonably expect. So a McLaren third force, but less brilliant than six months agostill strong on the high level of load, but which needs to unlock other potential if it wants to aim higher, even, it must be said, with an Oscar Piastri who is not so incisive for now, ahead of Norris only in Jeddah only for reasons of strategy, and who continues to experience significant delays in the race from his teammate (18 seconds in Suzuka, after 30 for Australia).
Mercedes disastrous, Aston approves the updates but remains at a distance
Closing the first group are Mercedes and Aston Martin. The Brackley team is in a very difficult phase, this time with a strategic choice at the restart which almost appeared to be an extreme attempt, but implemented with both drivers who therefore found themselves condemned to a race only for back-up positions right from the start. Even with new tires, however, the pace was never up to the pace of the leaders, and the delay from the front seems to derive from concrete limitations of the package, which only long development work can gradually eliminate, but hardly with results in the short term. Together with them, Alonso's Aston Martin, with the Spaniard who exalted himself on the Suzuka track, really pushing his AMR24 to the maximum for the entire race. The updates still seemed to work even if from the data we noticed what seemed like an increase in aerodynamic efficiency, even if Stroll complained about the straight-line performance via radio, defining the cars around in another category. It's difficult to understand whether it's the Mercedes engine that isn't providing enough power or the fact that, being at the back, the Canadian was competing with cars around him with much less load than his and therefore more complicated to pass on the straight. From the overall graph of the race, however, we can see how the teams' performances are divided into two groups that are impervious to each other, with the first 5 teams on one side and the last 5 almost a minute away from the tail of the first. Stroll's poor performance however opened the door to a point for Yuki Tsunoda, worthy of mention as the author of an excellent start to the season, including the home race.
RedBull still has wings (?)
We close with the dominators, that is, obviously Red Bull. The qualities of the car are those that we have mentioned several times, although the RB20 is not the single-seater that excels in every field compared to the competition like the RB19 was. Slow corners have become an important hunting ground for lap times (in the race Verstappen gained 2 tenths of a second on Sainz at the hairpin and chicane of the triangle) and the work to widen the operating window means that, with the exception of graining, Newey's car can perform at its best in all track conditions . Sergio Perez is clearly benefiting greatly from this, as with a simpler car to carry in his hands he no longer leaves his partner alone to lead the group, but manages to accompany him albeit at a distance, sealing the deal for the Milton Keynes team. 3 doubles out of 4 races held so far and putting away for now the dreams of the Constructors' title of the pursuers. However, the team of Horner and Verstappen brought a first significant package of updates to Japan, something that their opponents, Ferrari in particular, have not yet demonstrated and the impression is that, although they will probably continue to be the reference, they will not be able to dominate on all tracks like last season.
Now two sprints and then the Ferrari updates
The season program therefore continues with the races in China and Miami, both with sprint races and therefore with the new format which provides for the opening of the parc fermé between the sprint and the race. Even though we are not particular fans of sprints, there is great curiosity to see if the teams will bring setups dedicated to short races and long races, which would become really interesting. Then comes the Imola race where Sainz also let it slip that he will arrive “a big package” for Ferrari. The fact that it is defined as important means that the expected earnings on the simulator should be significant, for a central part of the season which could at least become more interesting. In the meantime, let's enjoy them “first quarter report cards” that the Suzuka track delivered.
#Suzuka #telemetry #Sainz #faster #Verstappen #hard #tire
