donald trump He was the most unlikely of American presidents. When he launched his campaign in 2016, the closest he had come to holding an executive position was pretending to fire contestants on a business-themed reality show. As ridiculous as it seemed, the image of Trump sitting behind a huge conference table and uttering his catchy slogan, “You're fired!”, convinced millions of American voters, including many who were voting for the first time, that he was a man who knew how to get things done.
That perception, coupled with a good sense of timing and good luck, allowed Trump to defeat a political icon like Hillary Clinton in a competition that seemed tailor-made for the Democratic candidate. But, although Trump says otherwise, his victory was narrow. In fact, in the popular vote count he lost by 2.8 million votes: far more than any other president in US history. USA.
Since then, Trump has been a liability at the polls. In the 2018 legislative election, the Democrats beat their Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential election, he lost narrowly in the Electoral College, and by a huge difference in the national vote count. In the 2022 congressional election, Trump's handpicked candidates suffered defeats across the country, and Democratic candidates retained their seats or captured Republican seats in key states (including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), often by wide difference.
Although these failures have caused some murmuring among Republicans, Trump remained in control of the party apparatus, its leadership and its most extremist members. It's something the Republican Party will regret this year, when it and Trump face what will most likely be a devastating electoral defeat.
Generational change
Trump's erratic behavior, his antidemocratic rhetoric and threats against his opponents will contribute to his losing the presidential election in November. But what will ultimately send him into permanent retirement will be the demographic makeup of the United States.
The old adage that “demography is destiny” (a phrase from the French philosopher Auguste Comte) may have a much greater impact on the outcome of this election than in any of the previous presidential elections.
Between the 2016 and 2024 elections, about twenty million older voters will have died, and about 32 million young Americans will have reached the minimum voting age. Many young voters disdain both parties, and Republicans are very active in courting (mostly white male) voters on college campuses. But the issues that matter most to Gen Z — including reproductive rights, democracy and the environment — will keep most of them in the Democratic camp.
The reality is that, since Trump's entry into American politics in 2016, the Republican Party has become mores older, whiter, more masculine and more extremist. He's also smaller, and Trump's unwillingness to upset his base of supporters makes it difficult (or impossible) to attract moderate and independent voters.
President Joe Biden has more voters at his disposal than Trump. This does not mean that victory will be easy, but it does mean that it can survive more voters staying home. If Trump wants to win, he will need every possible voter in his party to show up, and he must capture votes from still-undecided Americans who may have long since distanced themselves from him, not only because of his personal conduct, but also because of his policies. .
Abortion and environment
The Republican Party is on the wrong side of every important issue the American people will face at the polls.
Take reproductive rights for example. The Supreme Court of the United States, captured by the Republicans, decided in 2022 to overturn the Roe v. Wade, who for half a century was a guarantee of the dright to abortion. Ultraconservative state legislatures have made abortion illegal even in cases of rape or incest. And the Alabama Supreme Court recently issued a ruling that equates frozen embryos with children. This trend brought more women and moderate voters into the Democratic fold (or at least, into the undecided and “anyone but Trump” groups).
On national security issues, Trump has often aligned himself with traditional US adversaries, upsetting, angering or confusing a key electoral cohort in his party.
Many of the older Republicans are still imbued with the spirit of the times of Ronald Reagan, and see America as the 'shining city on the hill,' a beacon of freedom and democracy to the entire world. For those old enough to remember the Cold War, Russia is an enemy, through and through, of the United States.
For most of these Republicans, the Russian invasion of democratic Ukraine is unacceptable: A recent poll found that 43 percent of Republicans believe the United States is not giving enough or the right amount of aid to Ukraine. And they certainly disapprove of Trump's threats to leave NATO or encourage Russian aggression against alliance members who fail to meet their military spending obligations. Trump's affinity with authoritarian states (from Russia and Hungary to Saudi Arabia) is an escandal for these republicans.
Until recently, Republicans still had another option: Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. And everything indicates that the
Haley's intense attacks on Trump's policy record took effect. In the New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina primaries, she got about 30 percent of the vote.
She dropped out of the presidential race after losing the Super Tuesday primaries in fourteen states. However, Haley has so far refused to endorse Trump, and declared that she will have to single-handedly get the support of those who voted for her. And there are good reasons to doubt that she will achieve it. In fact, before she votes for Trump in November, many of Haley's supporters are likely to stay home or vote for Biden. In Iowa, she said she would do that to 49 percent of those who declared they supported Haley in the primary.
Trump lost the 2020 election and called for an insurrection. Since then, he has moderated neither his rhetoric nor his behavior; On the contrary, he has become more extremist. If this reduces, even marginally, the turnout of Republican voters, Trump faces a great defeat, because basically there won't be enough American voters who want to bring him back to the White House.
AUTHOR: REED GALEN
© Project Syndicate – Washington
Co-founder of The Lincoln Project, a pro-democracy organization founded by former Republican strategists with the goal of defeating Donald Trump.
Two judicial blows for the former president
Although there are many analysts who emphasize that the multiple judicial processes against the former Republican president, far from harming him, strengthen him, as they reinforce his rhetoric as a 'victim' and 'persecuted by the system', Donald Trump continues to suffer defeats in court.
This week, Judge Scott McAfee, in charge of the case opened in Georgia against Trump for electoral interference, rejected his request to dismiss it on Thursday, arguing that the request cannot be hidden behind the fact that his conduct is protected by the First Amendment of the United States Constitution. United States, which guarantees the right to freedom of expression. Trump and 18 other “accomplices” are accused in Georgia of forming a criminal association with the aim of overturning the results of the 2020 presidential elections in that state, which Democrat Joe Biden won.
At the same time, a Florida judge, Aileen Cannon, refused to dismiss the criminal accusation that the former Republican president faces in this state for mishandling confidential documents found in his possession after leaving the White House. The legal proceedings by Trump's lawyers sought to bury 32 charges of “intentionally withholding and failing to deliver documents containing national defense information,” as well as others related to “obstruction of justice.”
On the 15th of this month, Trump will face the first criminal trial against a former president of the United States for the 'Stormy Daniels' case, where he is accused of paying $130,000 'under the table' to a porn actress to buy her silence for an extramarital affair.
Efe
New poll shows Biden's biggest weaknesses If anything is
clear in this year's United States presidential elections, it is that an important part of the citizens of that country will vote for “the lesser evil.” According to a survey published on Wednesday by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), a majority of voters consider that neither candidate has the capacity to be president. In the case of Trump (77 years old), 48 percent believe that he can perform at the mental level required, while only 28 percent think the same about Biden (81 years old). The same survey reveals that 59 percent have a
unfavorable opinion of Biden, compared to 52 percent of Trump. Other surveys, aware of the discontent with which American voters will arrive at the polls this year, also measure how strongly Americans oppose the candidates. According to the YouGov poll at the end of March, 48 percent of those who reject Trump do so “strongly,” while in the case of Biden the percentage is 45 percent. Size the number of
haters or detractors of the candidates is key to knowing to what extent they will be able to convince the undecided, something that could decide who will be the president of the United States until 2029. The great drag on Biden's popularity, according to the conservative WSJ poll, is immigration and the economy, two issues on which Trump, who has promised mass deportations and practically closing trade with China with tariffs of 60%, seems to be better positioned. percent. Although on the other hand, if Biden were to lose in November, he would be the first president to fail.
re-election
#reasons #Trump #win #November
