Ukraine's arms aid changed from a temporary test to a planned activity, but it is still not enough for Ukraine's goals, says Ilmari Käihkö. It is hoped that the EU countries will reach an agreement on the 50 billion euro support package at the summit that starts on Thursday.
If Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it may increase the possibility of war expansion. Or is it more likely that a defeated and humiliated Russia will take armed revenge?
Professor of International Politics at the University of Tampere Tuomas Forsbergin in my opinion, these two points of view regarding Russia's actions in different situations have influenced the kind of military aid European countries and the United States have given to Ukraine.
According to him, Ukraine is in a very difficult situation because of this.
“The continuation of the war is maintained and the aid does not want to be withdrawn. At the same time, however, not all weapons are given so that Ukraine can defeat Russia,” says Forsberg.
Suurvallan there has always been an effort to guess the minders.
Tuomas Forsberg
When the Soviet Union fell apart, there was more fear of a weak Russia, or even that it would fall apart, than of its strength, Forsberg says.
According to him, there is now a greater concern that Russia will become too strong. On the other hand, the fear of Russia's weakness has not disappeared either. There is a particular fear that Russia's leaders will feel that they have been defeated, says Forsberg.
According to him, there is a clear dividing line between the countries of Eastern Europe and Western Europe. The latter side also includes the United States.
Russian the neighboring countries feel that the fear of a weak Russia is exaggerated and that a strong Russia is a clear threat, says Forsberg.
Statistical figures on the aid given to Ukraine also indicate this. Russia's neighboring countries have given Ukraine the most aid in relation to their country's gross domestic product. That's what it says The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which follows Ukraine aid. Lithuania and Estonia are at the top of the language list, when comparing the support to the country's gross domestic product.
On the other hand, France ranks at the tail end of the arms aid statistics, even though it is one of Europe's milita
ry powers. in France although we agreethat the country has actually participated in supporting Ukraine with a multiple amount compared to Kiel's figures.
France already delivered long-range Scalp missiles to Ukraine last year and promised to deliver more in January.
The institute's figures show the aid granted from January 2022 until the end of October last year.
Germany has been one of Europe's most generous supporters of arms aid to Ukraine. At the same time, however, the country has not wanted to give up its long-range Taurus missiles, despite Ukraine's requests. Germany has received a lot of criticism because of this.
Taurus could play a big role for example, in taking back the Crimean peninsula.
According to Forsberg, Germany's Taurus pledge indicates that the country is still wary of Russia's reactions if it feels that it is losing the war.
The West Armed support for Ukraine has begun to falter after almost two years of war.
The arms aid package to Ukraine is still stuck in the US due to internal political disputes. In December, Hungary blocked a 50 billion euro support package for Ukraine with its veto in the EU. It is hoped that the EU countries will reach an agreement on the support package at the summit that starts on Thursday this week.
Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö says that even though support for Ukraine is now faltering, one should not underestimate what has happened in the last two years.
“In the beginning there were dumpling tests, when the countries gave what they had. Now the arms aid is well organized and Ukraine has the opportunity to ask for the military equipment it really needs.”
Ilmari Käihkö
I'm crazy According to Russia, in addition to the threat, the arms aid has been influenced by very concrete things such as money, the countries' own stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, and their ability to produce more military equipment.
In addition to this, a risk assessment has been carried out in every country that helps Ukraine on how much military aid can be given to Ukraine without risking its own defense capabilities, if the war ends in a positive way for Russia, says Käihkö.
According to him, it is also positive that there has now been an investment in long-term support. It is easier for Ukraine to plan for the future, and this reduces the fear that support will end due to, for example, internal political situations in different countries.
“Long-term support may also affect Russia's possible assessment that they will win the war by waiting.”
People gathered for the funeral of Ukrainian poet and soldier Maksim Kryvtsov in Kiev. Kryvtsov died at the front in early January.
IN Ukraine however, the situation is acute. According to Käihko, Ukraine is no longer able to launch attacks because there is no ammunition. The initiative is stronger, that is, in Russia.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi stated on Sunday that the EU must be stronger than now in its support against Russian aggression. According to Zelensky, the reduction of US military support would be a very bad signal.
Concerns about the expansion of the war have increased in public debates across Europe in recent weeks.
A researcher specializing in Russia's military capabilities at the prestigious Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank Dara Massicot estimated in December, that the world will soon face a muggle, self-confident and vengeful Russia, if the president Vladimir Putin feels that Western support for Ukraine is running out.
According to Massicot, Russia can then make incorrect conclusions about the unity of the West and NATO's military capability.
According to Tuomas Forsberg of the University of Tampere, it is very difficult to assess what Russia might think about NATO's capabilities. In the Kremlin's output, NATO is given a very strong image on the one hand, and on the other hand it is considered weak and fragmented.
“In Russia, we live in a twofold reality, where the West is weak and strong at the same time. The same applies to the West. For us, Russia is weak and strong at the same time. There is no logic in that either,” says Forsberg.
The reason why Russia is perceived as strong in the West is the country's nuclear weapons, Forsberg adds.
National Defense University specialist researcher Pentti Forsström also says that nuclear weapons are the only thing keeping Russia in the superpower position.
Pentti Forsström
He does not believe that Russia would have the opportunity to expand the war, especially to NATO countries, if it won.
“Russia thinks about the situation in terms of power relations and resources. They are weakening themselves all the time and it doesn't seem to bother them. And that's how Europe will weaken as well. After all, this is a bit of a grudge,” says Forsström.
According to him, it will take years for Russia to rebuild its strength after the war in Ukraine.
However, Forsström does not rule out the possibility that Russia wants to expand its empire to former Soviet countries.
Russian recent history before the full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine can be interpreted from two different perspectives, says Forsberg.
On the one hand, you can see Russia, which no one stopped.
Russia got away without major consequences when it invaded Georgia in 2008. This was also the case in 2014, when Russia took control of the Crimean peninsula and part of eastern Ukraine.
“There is a logic here that Russia's appetite grew when no one responded,” says Forsberg.
On the other hand it can also be analyzed that Russia has resorted to military force when it has felt that it is the last resort to keep the situation favorable to itself.
“In 2008, Georgia was sliding into NATO. In 2014, Ukraine was getting closer to the EU. In 2022, Russia saw Ukraine's increasingly rapid transition towards the West and Zelensky's reluctance to commit to the Minsk agreements,” describes Forsberg.
He emphasizes that this analysis in no way means that Russia is justified in these actions, but it can be interpreted that Russia is not using military force to expand, but to hold on to what it imagined it controlled.
The people of Kyiv took shelter in the subway tunnel because of the air raid warning.
Ukraine has publicly stated that the goal of the war is to restore the country's 1991 borders, which also means recapturing the Crimean peninsula and eastern Ukraine.
Both Käihkö and Forsberg agree that the donor countries have not provided enough weapons for Ukraine's goals.
Forsström believes that if Ukraine were to get everything it has asked for, the situation on the front lines would change substantially. If it is enough to take back the Crimean peninsula and eastern Ukraine, Forsström of the National Defense University does not dare to assess that.
in Europe have been reluctant to publicly discuss how different countries see the outcome of the war. The general statement has been that this is a matter for Ukraine to decide.
According to Forsberg, this is a way to dodge a difficult question.
It is still understandable to him that the countries assisting Ukraine are not yet able to publicly state their final goals.
“But at some point, Europe needs to find a common vision of what Ukraine's “end game” is, and when it can be recommended, if there is no pressure to accept some kind of peace,” says Forsberg.
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