The scenarios of the conflict between Russia and NATO published by the German newspaper Bild are normal plans of the armed forces, says Minna Ålander, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute.
German afternoon newspaper Bild published at the weekend by the German defense authorities prepared scenarios About the possible nature and timing of the conflict between NATO and Russia.
The figures depicted a Russian attack that would specifically target the Suwałki Corridor: the narrow border area between Lithuania and Poland, located between Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad.
Similar scenarios are regularly drawn up by the armed forces of all countries, says a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Minna Ålander.
Minna Ålander, researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute
“We should be more worried if the armed forces didn't go through such bad day scenarios,” says Ålander in HS's Ukraine studio.
According to Ålander, the documents published by Bild are clearly part of a larger exercise that probably describes the worst possible scenario of conventional warfare. Similar fictitious series of events built around the Suwałki corridor have been practiced in NATO for a long time.
“Perhaps one new thing here was the dates, which are in the very near future.”
In public several possible timetables for the conflict between Russia and NATO have been presented in recent days. In Bild's documents, the conflict was planned within a year. Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas evaluate again of The Times publishing on Monday in the interview that Europe would have 3–5 years to prepare.
According to Ålander, it is difficult to predict exact schedules. However, estimates can be made, for example, based on the situation on Finland's eastern border.
In the sections published by Bild, scenarios regarding Finland's accession to NATO were not taken into account at all. With membership, the ambiguity about Finland's role during the attacks on the Baltic countries disappeared and the length of NATO's eastern border doubled.
“The Baltic countries are no longer an Achilles' heel on the map alone in the Baltic Sea,” Ålander describes.
“As long as our eastern border is relatively empty, and Russia has not been able to increase its military presence there, one could assume that any attack on the Baltics – even a hybrid attack – is not terribly likely in the near future.”
Screenshot from the Telegram channel of Bild's Russian-language service. In the map in Bild's article, Finland, as well as Norway and Denmark, is not marked with the blue color that is used for other NATO countries.
Bildin the presented scenarios are based on the starting point, where Russia would have started a new campaign in February and progressed in Ukraine by the summer.
HS fact checker and Ukraine expert John Helin considers both unlikely. Although a new motion could happen, it would probably not happen until after the Russian presidential election.
“Putin is afraid for his popularity. Even though the state is authoritarian, Putin wants the people to trust him, and he doesn't want any widespread protests.”
Although in the last week Russia has seemed to launch a more active attack in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, significant progress before the summer is unlikely, according to Helin. In particular, the fact that Russia would be able to occupy large areas seems inconvenient.
“In this war, breakthroughs have been difficult.”
Although The information published by Bild describes the worst possible scenarios, but European countries should invest in their preparedness.
“It is completely public knowledge that there would never be enough ammunition for a very long time in the kind of high-intensity warfare that is seen in Ukraine,” Ålander says.
A war between NATO and Russia could be very different from a war of aggression by Russia in Ukraine. According to Ålander, however, it would be good to increase ammunition production if only for the deterrent effect, since many European countries reduced their production after the end of the Cold War.
For example, in Germany and Sweden, the war is discussed more than ever in the social debate.
“Politicians are deliberately trying to wake up citizens to the fact that history did not end with the Cold War.”
In Ukraine, Germany has often been criticized for its slowness in arms deliveries and, among other things, for not agreeing to supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles. Changing the attitude climate and restoring the downtrodden armed forces will take time, even though the process has started in Germany, says Ålander.
Russian Beriev A-50 radar aircraft.
On Monday The Ukrainian Armed Forces said they shot down a Russian A-50 radar plane and damaged an Il-22 combat control plane. The A-50 was said to have crashed into the Sea of Azov, near the town of Berdjansk.
“The claims seem to be true, at least to the extent that the A-50 was dropped and the Il-22 was damaged,” says Helin.
At the moment, more discussion is caused by how the A-50 plane went down in the first place. If the Ukrainian Air Force shot down the plane, it was probably an ambush with a Patriot anti-aircraft missile, Helin estimates.
The loss of the A-50 is significant for Russia in any case, as radars are an important part of its air combat system. They are used, among other things, to guide fighters and bombers, and they give early warning of the movements of the Ukrainian Air Force.
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