HS in Iowa | Trump's huge lead may be his biggest problem

Des Moines, Iowa

Now it begins.

The US presidential election process begins in the state of Iowa on Monday, when Republicans vote for their party's nominee.

There are six candidates left in the Republican presidential race, when Chris Christie dropped out of the game last week. They are Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson and Ryan Binkley.

Trump is the clear early favorite, but Iowa is not all about winning.

It's about exceeding expectations.

Opinion polls In Iowa, they look like this:

Trump is in a class of his own, Haley and DeSantis are fighting for second place. (The freshest the survey however, DeSantis has fallen behind.)

However, any outcome that deviates from prior expectations can shake the candidate selection. A rough example: if Trump got less than 50 percent of the vote and Haley more than 20, the situation would immediately electrify.

The next primary election will be held in New Hampshire, and Haley is strong there. Haley's endorsement is the most recent surveys based on around 30 percent, and Trump's lead has shrunk to less than ten percentage points.

So if Haley were to do better than expected in Iowa and then win New Hampshire, the chance for a big surprise could live at least for a while.

The party field would have to think about whether Trump is really the candidate they want to stand behind.

Second the alternative is that Trump dominates from start to finish.

The campaign team has been working hard for this: a spectacular victory in Iowa, a credible defense victory in New Hampshire and easy skiing from there.

A quick victory would free up time for the lawsuits, which will inevitably take Trump's attention throughout the year. A descriptive preview of the year was the fact that only a few days before the primaries, Trump was not campaigning but in New York before the court.

However, Trump has spent time in Iowa, including Sioux County, where his support was at its lowest eight years ago. He doesn't want to lose a second time: in the 2016 primary Ted Cruz took first place in Iowa.

At campaign events, Trump has always devoted a good amount of time to serious-minded Iowans: come and vote.

Be there. Show up.

Here's what typical campaign events in Iowa look like: They're small and there are lots of them. Vivek Ramaswamy has toured all 99 Iowa counties twice and Ron DeSantis once. Picture: Level Katopodis / AFP

in Iowa after all, it is everything.

In the state, there is no actual primary election, but voting takes place in so-called caucuses. No advance voting, no postal votes, the only way to make a difference is to show up on Monday at 19:00 local time.

Iowa has 99 counties and more than a thousand polling places: schools, libraries, churches, all kinds of public places.

First there is a prayer, then there is an oath to the flag, then the captain of each candidate's support group gives a speech – and then the vote is taken.

Iowa is a small state with a small population, so only 40 MPs out of 2,469 are available. The caucus representatives will confirm the Republican presidential candidate at the caucus in July.

The Iowa result does not reflect the candidates' ultimate success very well. Only once in the 2000s has the winner of Iowa ended up being the nominee (when the sitting president has not sought re-term): George W. Bush in 2000.

Still, the state has more weight than its size.

Iowans themselves like to say that their job is not to decide the candidate, but to narrow the field for voters in other states.

Dismal success in Iowa could end the campaign prematurely, while a good performance could provide an unexpected boost.

The temperature in Iowa could drop to a record low on caucus day. Picture: Jerry Mennenga / ZUMA

From the cold above 20 degrees is promised for Monday, and the strong wind increases the bite of the frost.

Perhaps Trump's biggest threat is the huge lead he has been happy to remind at every turn.

Will his supporters show up in droves if they think he's going to win anyway?

On the other hand, 49 percent of the election rally participants support Trump saidthat they were “extremely excited” about him.

Only nine percent of Haley's supporters said so.

HS is following the voting in Iowa on the ground. Results are expected early Tuesday morning Finnish time.

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