“2023 was just the beginning”: Ukraine is increasingly targeting Crimea – intelligence chief gives details

The time for peace negotiations has not yet come, said Kyrylo Budanov. The intelligence chief claims to have accurately predicted the start of the Ukraine war.

KYIV – Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Military Intelligence (GUR), told the French newspaper Le Monde in an article published on Thursday (January 11) that his country's attacks on Crimea last year were just the prelude to further operations. In recent months, Kiev has carried out several high-profile attacks on Russian targets in Crimea. Russia's Black Sea fleet was particularly affected.

Ukraine's military intelligence chief: Previous attacks on Crimea were “just the beginning”

According to Budanov, the Russian ruler can Waldimir Putin expect even more attacks in Crimea this year. “In 2023, the first Ukrainian incursions into temporarily occupied Crimea took place,” the US magazine quotes Newsweek from the article by Le Monde. “And that is just the beginning.”

Ukraine's attacks are so effective that the Russians are now building a new naval base on the Black Sea coast of Abkhazia (Georgia), said Budanov. “The Russians had to move everything to the southeast in a hurry,” he said.

Appeal to the West for more sanctions – otherwise “it could take quite a long time”

The intelligence chief appealed to the West to continue to support Ukraine militarily, even if people are increasingly tired of this war. “Those abroad who believe they are war-weary will have to woo the Russians when they come to occupy their own territories,” he said. Budanov added that Moscow's economy had proven surprisingly resilient despite the sanctions. The West's current sanctions have not been enough to force the Kremlin to change its behavior.

“The economy may be weak, but the country is not starving, on the contrary. At this rate, it could even take quite a long time,” he said, according to the Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Post. Western sanctions should target Russia's key economic sectors and the entire financial system, he noted.

“A certain Russian paradox surprised me. Everyone thought Moscow had a strong army and a weak economy. It turns out that the opposite is true,” Budanov said.

The time for peace negotiations has not yet come

He acknowledged that the fronts of the war in Ukraine are largely frozen and the counteroffensive has not gone as hoped. “On both sides, the very intensive use of attack drones has made both Russian and Ukrainian offensives impossible,” said Budanov. Another reason was the “unprecedented density of minefields since the Second World War”.

The right time has not yet come for peace negotiations, said Budanow. “Negotiations begin when one or both parties have an interest,” he said. This has so far “not been the case” in the Ukraine war.

Budanov, who has headed Ukraine's military intelligence since 2020, accurately predicted that Russia would attack Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Budanov recalled opposite Le Monde of watching the clock in the hours before the invasion began, anxiously waiting to see if his prediction would come true.

Ukraine War: Battle for Crimea crucial for Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that retaking Crimea is one of his country's desired war goals. Russia invaded the strategically important peninsula in spring 2014 and annexed it in violation of international law. In the Ukraine war Crimea increasingly became the focus of Kiev's war efforts in the second half of 2023. The Russian Black Sea Fleet stationed there is extremely important for Russia. Small but targeted blows can therefore have a big impact.

In recent months, Putin's fleet has suffered significant losses, such as the destruction of the Novocherkassk landing ship at the e
nd of December. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps then spoke of a turning point in the war, as 20 percent of the Russian Black Sea Fleet had now been destroyed. “Russia's dominance in the Black Sea is now in question and the new Maritime Capability Coalition led by the UK and Norway is helping Ukraine win at sea,” he wrote on the platform X, formerly Twitter.

“Crimea plays an important role in Russia’s current imperial consciousness,” explained the Eastern Europe expert and historian Prof. Dr. in the summer of 2023. Klaus Gestwa from the University of Tübingen opposite IPPEN.MEDIA. “If the peninsula falls to Ukraine, Putin's power in the Kremlin will probably have been compromised,” said Gestwa. Crimea is therefore crucial for Moscow.

Category list image: © IMAGO/Jessica Koscielniak