Ibovespa rises 0.61% and returns to 132 thousand points; in the week, it drops 1.61%

The Ibovespa ended the first week of the year accumulating a loss of 1.61%, compared to a negative adjustment between 0.59% (Dow Jones) and 3.25% (Nasdaq) in the same interval in New York. After having advanced in the previous three weeks, in a progression that took it to new historic highs at the end of 2023, the four opening sessions of 2024 were guided at B3 by external factors, mainly the realignment of expectations around the moment in which interest rates USA will begin to be cut by the Federal Reserve.

The enthusiasm that had prevailed in December, that the Fed's reference interest rate reduction would come in March, was tempered at the start of the year due to investor caution, based on the minutes of the most recent monetary policy meeting of the Central Bank of the United States and in a new batch of economic data, which culminated this Friday with the December payroll.

Today, the Ibovespa, which rose just over 1% at the best moment of the day, closed still positively, with a gain limited to 0.61%, at 132,022.92 points, between a minimum of 130,578.83 and a maximum of 132,634. .81 points in the session. Financial turnover was R$19.5 billion this Friday, below the two previous sessions, when it had reached R$21 billion.

After an initial negative reaction to the American labor market figures released in the morning, the downward revisions in job creation in the previous two months – which helped to absorb the higher-than-expected reading for December – ended up prevailing in the moderately favorable interpretation of the data. payroll this Friday. The weaker reading for the services activity index (PMI), from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), also contributed to some stabilization of investors' mood.

“As soon as the payroll data came out in the morning, Treasury interest rates were above 4%”, observes Fernando Ferrer, analyst at Empiricus Research. Subsequently, although with an upward bias in the session, there was some accommodation in risk-free yields compared to what was seen at the day's highs, when the 10-year yield was 4.10%; the 30-year, at 4.23%, and the 2-year, more correlated to the short-term outlook for United States monetary policy, at 4.47%.

In a second moment, says Ferrer, the market began to pay attention to the downward revisions in data on job creation in October and November, which compensated for the “extra” job creation in December, reassuring investors a little and stabilizing the bags. Thus, after this reassessment of employment data from a glass-half-full perspective, the expectation that the Fed could cut the reference rate in March returned to 66.4%, according to the CME platform, after retreating in recent days, reaching 64.2% yesterday.

“The ISM services PMI expanded in December, but at a slower pace, which contributed to the perception that there is a slowdown in activity”, adds the analyst. Waiting for interest rate cuts from the Fed, there has been less in the appreciation of economic data by the market, with the notion, which has been consolidated, that the American Central Bank operated the instruments in order to ensure a soft landing for the economy .

Today, United States Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed this view in an interview with CNN. “We have had 23 months in a row with unemployment below 4%, something we have not seen in 50 years,” said Yellen, for whom the United States managed to reduce inflation without imposing drastic damage on economic activity and the job market.

In turn, JPMorgan's chief economist, Bruce Kasman, assesses that the December payroll, stronger than expected, contrasts with the optimism still seen in the markets regarding the moment when monetary easing will, in fact, begin. . “The report calls into question the optimism that we can achieve aggressive and early monetary easing, starting in March.”

Here, the market started 2024 a little less optimistic about the performance of shares in the very short term, as shown by this Friday's Broadcast Bolsa Thermometer. In comparison with the last survey, relating to the week before Christmas (18 to 22/12), the share of professionals who expect the Ibovespa to rise next week fell from 57.14% to 44.44%. Among those expecting stability, the percentage also fell, from 28.57% to 22.22%. And those who project a fall for the index went from 14.29% to 33.33%, in the same interval.

This Friday, the good performance of the shares of large banks – highlighted by Itaú PN (+2.34%), at the session's high at the close – ensured a positive signal for the Ibovespa, on a discreet day for Petrobras (ON +0, 87%, PN +0.23%) and still negative for Vale (ON -1.28%). At the top of the B3 reference index, highlights include Soma (+6.85%), Cielo (+5.40%), Alpargatas (+4.57%) and Hapvida (+3.89%). On the opposite side, Pão de Açúcar (-7.87%), Braskem (-2.71%) and IRB (-2.55%).