The war in Israel is causing many civilian casualties in Gaza. But the numbers come from the Hamas-run Ministry of Health. Are they credible?
Gaza/Jerusalem – According to the Hamas led by the Ministry of Health War in Israel 20,000 civilians have been killed in the Gaza Strip since October 7th. But as the number continues to rise, the information has come under scrutiny because of its source. After all, Hamas itself is spreading the information. How credible are the numbers?
Often similar figures about victims in the Gaza Strip – “with a small gap between them”
So far the numbers seem to have often been correct; Because in previous wars and conflicts, the ministry's data was checked by human rights groups in the Gaza Strip. These groups “have a small lag compared to the Ministry of Health – about 24 hours – but the numbers are usually similar, with a small gap between them,” said Jack Khoury in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. Khoury is an Arab affairs reporter. For his report, Khoury compared the Hamas ministry's figures with those from NGOs such as the Gaza-based Al Mezan Center for Human Rights and international groups, “and they all said the numbers were fairly accurate,” he said.
In the 2014 Gaza war, for example, the Health Ministry counted 2,310 Palestinian deaths in the two-month war, while the United Nations put the number at 2,251 and the Israeli Foreign Ministry at 2,125, the newspaper said.
However, during the course of the war, important communication channels were destroyed, such as Reuters reported. One of the officials who ran the data center at Al-Shifa Hospital was killed in an Israeli airstrike. The other three were already missing when Israeli troops took control of the medical center. Since then, the ministry's figures have only been published sporadically.
Bombing of Al-Ahli Hospital shakes credibility – “no trust in the numbers”
Although international organizations have long considered the Gaza Health Ministry's figures to be a reliable reference point, the figures were called into question by the bombing of Al-Ahli Hospital in northern Gaza ten days after the start of the war. Hamas immediately blamed an Israeli airstrike for the explosion in a building where hundreds of Palestinians had taken shelter. The Arabic news channel AlJazeera had taken over the ministry's figures; Other international media outlets adopted this version, which reported 500 deaths.
There were mass protests around the world, accusations from diplomats and attempts to storm the Israeli consulate in Istanbul. News organizations later changed their reporting – it was revealed that the explosion was caused by a misguided Palestinian rocket. Ultimately there were significantly fewer deaths, around 100 to 300 people. This destroyed the trust. At the end of October, US President said Joe Biden Doubts about Hamas' statements. “I have no confidence in the numbers that the Palestinians are using,” he told a news conference.
“No obvious reason” to doubt the data – the number of deaths is probably too low
In response, the Palestinian Authority Health Ministry released the names, ages, genders and ID numbers of 7,028 Palestinians killed in the Gaza Strip that the ministry had collected there. These were according to information from Reuters analyzed by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and subsequently published in the medical journal The Lancet published. The investigation found “no obvious reason to doubt the validity of the data between October 7th and 26th, 2023”.
Medical experts believe Hamas's estimates are lower, not higher, than the actual Palestinian death toll. The UN human rights office also said this month Reuterss that the ministry's figures were likely insufficient given the number of people still buried under the rubble.
Differing estimates of civilian and military fatalities – 42.8 percent of fatalities are children
Estimates only differ when it comes to counting civilian and military deaths. That writes Haarez. For the 2014 war, Hamas stated that 70 percent of those killed were non-combatants. The United Nations put this number at 65 percent, Israel at 36 percent.
The Palestinian Authority claimed that 70 percent of the deaths in the Gaza Strip in the current war were women and children. However, no age breakdown has been published since October. The Lancet noted that the number of deaths is highest among men between the ages of 30 and 34, which “may be due to exposure to combatants or civilians.” 42.8 percent of the fatalities were children under the age of 18.
“This war has surpassed everything” – The unprecedented humanitarian situation in Gaza
The Gaza Strip has been in a terrible situation beforesaid Jack Khoury in the report by Haaretz, “but this war has surpassed everything.” It is unprecedented “in terms of scale, small area and number of people harmed. In other situations, like Syria, they had places to flee to. There’s nowhere for them to escape here.” The humanitarian situation in Gaza is unprecedented.
According to the World Health Organization, 93 percent of people in the Gaza Strip are affected by hunger and malnutrition. The number of infectious diseases is increasing rapidly, and malnutrition makes disease control even more difficult. Meanwhile, the health system has collapsed. (tpn)
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