A year without masks in China: from enthusiasm to economic catarrh

For those who made the trip to China from abroad in 2022, repeating it in 2023 stirs up ghosts; It seems inconceivable that, after leaving the plane (where it is not mandatory to wear a mask), you only have to go through immigration control, pick up your suitcase and take a taxi, without showing the results of several PCR tests or different QR codes, and without needing to stay quarantined in a hotel room for weeks. The changes that the Asian giant has experienced a year after shelving the very strict “zero Covid” policy are palpable from the moment of arrival. The welcome is not given by staff dressed in protective suits (PPE) and activities that had been paused due to mass confinements have returned to normal. Although the population's enthusiasm to make up for lost time is evident, the suffocating anticovid measures that for almost three years dominated the lives of 1.4 billion people have left a wound that, for many, remains unhealed, and have caused the second economy on the planet continues to drag the burden of those excesses and does not finish recovering.

“This year has been much better than 2022,” concedes a 24-year-old Chinese man who identifies himself as Ansel. “But many things have changed compared to before the pandemic,” he says. “Many shops, bars and restaurants closed and have not reopened. Places that used to be very busy are now quite boring,” he says. This Beijing resident says that the optimism with which he and his friends greeted the year has dissipated over the months. In his opinion, there is a general feeling of “paranoia” and “loss of confidence” due to the “great uncertainty.”

Their generation, belonging to the one-child policy, is the most educated in China, but work is scarce and salaries are lower than they expected. In the month of June, urban youth unemployment (between 16 and 24 years old) reached a record of 21.3%, double that of before the pandemic. In August, the Government decided to stop publishing statistics by age, coinciding with the time of revealing the July data, which was expected to be even worse, by recording the probable job search of the new class of university graduates, the largest in history. from the country. In November, the urban unemployment rate stood at 5%, unchanged from October. Ansel, who graduated in 2021, considers himself lucky to have a job related to the engineering he studied, although he assures that it is “impossible for him to save.” The situation worries him and he is changing certain habits – “Now I cook more” – but he adds: “I'm not going to stop doing things that I can do now and that make me happy.”

Precisely, hundreds of young Chinese took to the streets in November 2022 and, shouting “We don't want PCR, we want to get our lives back!”, they demanded the end of a strategy that had become unsustainable amid the increase in infections. by the omicron variant. “We couldn't continue like this,” an editor of the nationalist newspaper tells this newspaper. Global Times who prefers to remain anonymous. “Several friends were at the demonstration. [convocada] on the Liangma River. I also wanted to participate,” she confesses. The spontaneous revolt of the blank pages – with which they symbolized the lack of freedom of expression – became the largest display of public discontent in Xi Jinping's decade in power and was the last spark after a month in which Different protests against confinements had emerged in different parts of the nation. A week later, the Government decided to shelve its draconian policy against the coronavirus.

A year later, many remember the pandemic as part of the distant past; others, like Wu, 33, do not forget that the end of the measures was announced without adequate preparation. This Chongqing native lost her grandmother during the tsunami of infections that occurred after the opening: “In 2020 they managed to keep the virus at bay, but the population was not prepared for what was to come.” The abrupt change of direction in the fight against covid-19 occurred when the country was facing its largest outbreak of infections, in the middle of winter, and without a high rate of vaccinated elderly population. “We were scared about the coronavirus for years and, from one day to the next, we were infected. We had no means to deal with something like that,” she criticizes by phone.

For Alicia García Herrero, chief economist for Asia at Natixis, “the consequences of the zero covid policy have been very great.” This Spanish expert had spent three years without setting foot in China and returned at the beginning of December, invited to participate in various forums. In a conversation with EL PAÍS, she says that she has the impression that the Asian giant has gone backwards in terms of its command of English, its relationship with foreigners and its attitude towards the world, which she defines as “much more inward.” .

China closed its borders on March 28, 2020 and it was not until January of this year that it stopped requiring quarantines for travelers from abroad and, in March, it resumed normally granting visas to request entry into the country. In order to revive tourism, the economy and contact between people, which have not yet started after the end of anti-pandemic restrictions, China allows visa-free entry to Spanish, French and German citizens from December 1 , Dutch, Italians and Malaysians traveling for tourism, business or family visits for stays of up to 15 days.

García Herrero has also observed that people are “very worried about their future” and “especially about their future income”, a recurring theme in the conversations he had during his stay. “It was not like this in the past. It was a straight line up, [la idea de que] everything was always going to get better. This has changed radically,” she asserts.

According to figures published by the People's Bank of China (the central bank), household savings increased by 17.8 trillion yuan (2.27 trillion euros) in 2022, while bank deposits increased by about 26, 3 billion yuan (3.3 billion euros). Although economists believe that it is a hopeful sign that consumers have savings, the big question is when they will use them.

In November, the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.5% year-on-year, the largest decline in three years, despite Beijing's objective of keeping it around 3% in 2023. Production prices, which depend on largely the cost of commodities and raw materials, also contracted 3% in November and have remained in negative territory over the last year. For this reason, comparisons with neighboring Japan resonate strongly, which after the burst of the real estate bubble and the loss of assets in the early 1990s began a period of deflation and stagnant growth.

Economist Wang Tao, author of Making Sense of China's Economy (Understanding the Chinese Economy, 2023), warns against the temptation to predict, as many have done before, the “collapse of China.” But he does concede that this post-pandemic year “people have been disappointed by the absence of a strong recovery,” especially in consumption, as he said in a recent online chat with correspondents. Wang believes one of the main reasons is that the real estate sector in China is currently going through the “deepest recession in history.” And this represents a direct blow to household confidence: 60% of their wealth is deposited in real estate properties. If this sector falters, the rest of the economy suffers. But she also believes that the Government has already implemented shock measures, and that there are others on the way that will help “stabilize” the situation in the coming months, adds the also chief economist for China and head of economic studies on Asia at UBS. in Hong Kong.

Confidence in the real estate sector has been in free fall since February (investment fell 9.4% year-on-year between January and November) and property sales by area in the first 11 months of 2023 contracted 8% year-on-year, according to the National Statistics Office, a figure that plummets by more than 32% when compared to 2019, prior to the pandemic and the real estate market crisis.

Liu, 34, sees the future as quite dark. This young man, who emigrated to Beijing 15 years ago, divides his time between writing novels and screenplays and working at a bar where he serves an often creative clientele — on one of the walls there is a kind of altar to the Chilean writer Roberto Bolaño. —. The three years of confinement, in his opinion, have caused havoc. “When the blockade ended, a year ago, I felt that the trauma was really there, and I could see the feeling of post-traumatic stress in many people,” he said one day this week through Wechat (the Chinese WhatsApp). In his generation, he has taken shape the idea that the “carefree days” of the past are over; and he says that a feeling of “urgency” comes over him. “Everyone knows that things are going to get worse, so you can't ignore [el futuro] more time. And you have to plan. Decide whether to go abroad or at least save money.” The bar he runs, he assures, is doing worse than in 2022. And with writing things are not going too well either: given the state of the economy, there are not many opportunities in cultural media. She wants to put this year behind her as soon as possible, she adds with a pessimistic air.

Although millions of Chinese have had to fasten their seatbelts in 2023, during the holiday season there is more movement everywhere. In summer, during the high tourist season, the long lines to visit the country's monuments had returned. And, this winter, the ski slopes – a sport that has become popular in China following the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics – look completely different from last year.

Thaiwoo station, an hour by bullet train from the capital, a year ago was almost a ghostly village between mountains. This year, the season is bustling. To arrive by train there are hardly any free seats, the lines on the chairlifts are long and the hotels are packed. In this place, businessman Wu You Wen, 49, opened just a few weeks ago, at the foot of the slope, a Spanish restaurant called Puerta 20, where he serves everything: croquettes, Iberian ham, paellas. “Last year there was no one here, now new restaurants and bars have opened, and people come from all over the country,” Wu said this week, sitting at a table in the establishment and in perfect Spanish. At the entrance there was a large stove ready to prepare rice for an event organized by a luxury car brand. “Now, we can travel freely without showing QR codes and without taking PCR tests. People can also leave China, and there is no need to quarantine between cities or countries,” he said. Regarding economic recovery, Wu responds that it is going “little by little.”

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