Shortly before the start of the campaign, the vote was practically defined in Cartagena and Murcia, as shown by the comparison between the GAD3 polls for LA VERDAD and the municipal results. The undecided bag barely displaced the voting trend during the two weeks that preceded 28-M. The campaign was decisive for Podemos, which lost all representation to the benefit of the majority party. That dance of a councilor in both cities granted an absolute majority to José Ballesta in Murcia and consolidated the victory of Noelia Arroyo in Cartagena, who could be mayor if Vox abstains.
The GAD3 polls were carried out on April 26 and 27 with a total of 400 interviews in Murcia and 400 in Cartagena, where, due to the greater demographic complexity of the electorate, an additional 150 were carried out on May 18. An adjusted, but sufficient, number of interviews, unlike the official CIS study which, being of a regional nature, was carried out with only 631 interviews for the million Murcians with the right to vote. Narciso Michavila’s team was almost right. The vote estimates were met with the PSOE (it obtained the 8 and 4 councilors predicted in Murcia and Cartagena), with Vox (it achieved the 6 and 4 councilors indicated by the polls), with MC (it obtained the 8 councilors in the study) and with Sí Cartagena (Castejón won his councilor act as the survey predicted).
The only deviation occurred with Podemos, which in the poll exceeded by tenths the 5% necessary to obtain representation and, when it fell below, gave one more councilor to the PP in both cities. At the time, the publication of these surveys deserved some derogatory comments from the PSOE but especially from Vox. The reality is that both Cemop and GAD3 carried out rigorous demoscopic work that now silences some mouths.
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