Sakhir and Jeddah, two poles apart that will tell if the 2023 championship is about to be a monopoly or if there will be glimmers of struggle. Red Bull simply dominated the opening round in Bahrain, but the RB19’s lead over the competition may be less marked in Saudi Arabia. In the two-week micro-break the teams had time to partially review the set-ups, which according to Vasseur are currently Ferrari’s main problem rather than the aerodynamic concept.
The track
Sergio Perez’s pole position in 2022 was recorded at an average of 252 km/h, against the 217 km/h of Verstappen’s last pole in Bahrain. The numbers in Jeddah may change slightly after the recent changes to the circuit, but the fact remains that the Saudi Arabian track is significantly faster than Sakhir. Bahrain had straights aplenty, but the repeated low speed starts limited the time spent above 250km/h compared to what will happen in Saudi Arabia. The same data from the braking system give an idea of how much smoother the circuit is compared to the one that hosted the opening stage. The brakes are used for 11 seconds per lap, equal to about 13% of the time against 18% in Bahrain, describing a track with short braking where you go lots of cornering speed. The geometry of the curves also changes, passing from the tight switchbacks of Sakhir to the rapid and wide curves of Jeddah. In summary, a completely antipode track that could bring the teams closer together, although it seems unlikely that Red Bull could lose its role as first force.
The teams arrive at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix with the experience of the first race, but without three days of preparation on the same track as happened in Bahrain. Red Bull maintains the favors of the forecast on the eve, but will have to prove that it is equally effective on a limiting track for the front axle, after having dominated at Sakhir on a more demanding circuit for the rear. In fact, if there was any small problem for the world champions in the opening round, that was it the slight understeer complained of by Max Verstappen on the flying lap. The balance shifted towards the rear in Bahrain helped protect the tires in the burning stages of traction, but on a front limited track like Jeddah it would risk accelerating front tire wear. Furthermore, accidents and safety cars are always around the corner for the Saudi citizen, forcing him to adapt his strategy accordingly. A neutralization in the early stages of the race would push everyone to come back and put on hard rubber to get to the finish line, as happened in the 2022 edition. However, the hard compound is currently the one least digested by the RB19.
Goal to keep the pressure up
Straight-line speed was the main feature that emerged from the SF-23, which will come in handy on the next super-fast tracks, starting from Jeddah. Ferrari should thus be able to keep Aston Martin at a distance and to strengthen the role of second force on the track. We expect a Grand Prix in which the high load of Red Bull will give wings to the RB19 in the driven first sector, to then see the recovery of the Red Bull on the long back straights, a reverse dynamic compared to what was seen in the 2022 edition On the other hand, the understeer from which the SF-23 suffers could prove to be even more penalizing than in the first race, as Jeddah is a front-limited track. To get close to the reigning champions, Ferrari is hoping for setups and updatestwo closely related aspects. In fact, between Jeddah and Melbourne, a new front wing will make its debut on the Red, helping to find load on the front axle which is currently the weakest axle of the SF-23. Combating understeer would help on the one hand to improve the balance, which in itself would be a step forward, but it would also unlock new set-up options. These include the possibility of increasing the aerodynamic load at the rear, further benefiting tire degradation and allowing the ground clearance to be raised to combat porpoising. Before that, however, Ferrari will have to untie the knot on the battery and the control unit of Charles Leclerc’s single-seater. If none of the units replaced in Bahrain are recoverable, 10 to 20 penalty positions on the grid could be expected for the Monegasque.
Aston Martin it appeared to be an effective car on slow tracks and with lots of downforce, but struggling on the straights. The stability of the rear is also a dowry inherited from the 2022 AMR22, while the incisiveness on a front limited track has yet to be demonstrated. For this reason, Aston could be slightly more detached in Jeddah, but the Silverstone team is ready to surprise again. Mercedes on the other hand, he no longer fears the long Saudi straights, but the lack of load in the medium-speed range is a big concern in view of a super-fast track. Who most of all will run on the defensive, however, is McLarenlacking in terms of aerodynamic efficiency, which in Jeddah is the dowry that emerges above all.
Pressures rising
Jeddah is one medium-low downforce track, where the main stresses for the tires are lateral ones, against the high traction and braking stresses of Bahrain. The asphalt is also not very abrasive and the axle to keep under control in the race is the front one. Once again the Grand Prix will take place at night, leaving only one free practice session to be held after sunset under the same conditions as qualifying and the race, hindering the search for set-up. Pirelli confirms the choice of 2022, bringing the intermediate compounds of the range, C2, C3 and C4, one hardness step less than in Bahrain. Inflation pressures go up againwith 21.0 psi at the rear and 22.5 psi at the front, as indeed already happened in the 2022 edition. Compared to the first race, however, the gap from last season’s pressures is narrowing, a sign on one side of a more demanding track than the tires , but on the other also of Pirelli which may have changed its approach to managing loads higher than expected.
There has been a lot of talk about modifications made to the circuit for safety reasons, including the slowdown of the fast left-right chicane that precedes the back straight. From the simulations conducted by Brembo, the speed taken into turn 22 drops from 232 to 225 km/h, contrary to all the other corners where the distances traveled have gone up as a result of development. At the same point, the estimated braking time increases from 0.83 to 1 second, while the distance lengthens from 61 to 72 metres. However, the most demanding braking remains that of the last corner, where you go from 319 to 113 km/h, with a peak deceleration of 4.9 g. However, despite the changes, Jeddah hasn’t lost those characteristics that make it a small temple of speed, the same speed that Ferrari clings to to regain morale after a disappointing start.
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