Zelenskyj is looking for a successor as commander

After the falling out with the president, the commander of the Ukrainian army, Valeriy Zalushnyj, will probably have to vacate his post.

Three names are being discussed when it comes to the question of who should succeed the current Ukrainian commander Valeriy Zalushnyj in office. It is certain that the 50-year-old will leave. The relationship between him and President Volodymyr Zelensky is broken.

Overall, what is probably the most turbulent week in political Kiev since the Russian attack in February 2022 can be summed up in a few sentences as follows: It is unimaginable that Valeriy Zalushnyj, the popular commander of the Ukrainian army, will remain in office for a long time. Despite countless speculations, it is still unclear when exactly he will leave and who will succeed him.

Legally, President Volodymyr Zelensky, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, can fire his subordinate Saluzhny, whom he himself appointed in July 2021, at any time. In contrast to the appointment, the president does not even have to rely on a suggestion from the defense minister. That would just be a formality anyway. But the 50-year-old Saluschnyj is not just another subordinate. Ukrainians trust no one more than their top general: 88 percent, according to a survey conducted at the beginning of December by the Kiev International Sociological Institute (KIIS).

Power struggle between two popular characters

However, 62 percent generally trust the institution of the president, with Zelenskyj as a political figure achieving 77 percent. These continue to be extremely high values, especially since Zelensky was categorically rejected by around a fifth of the Ukrainian electorate before the war and was more tolerated than supported after February 24, 2022. What is clear, however, is that all other public figures are far behind Salushnyj and Zelenskyj – and that the current commander, whose political views are unknown, unites Ukrainians better.

It is all the less surprising that 72 percent of Ukrainians would react negatively to the possible dismissal of Saluzhny – also according to a December survey by KIIS. Only two percent would rate such a decision positively. Freeing the general would pose a significant political risk for Zelensky.

Constructive collaboration not possible

Significant protests are unlikely during wartime. But Zelenskyj would have to expect a loss of trust. On the front in the coming months it will be more about defense anyway; no major breakthroughs are to be expected with or without Saluschny. The situation would be extremely difficult for his successor due to public pressure.

The fact that Saluschnyj's removal is still considered inevitable shows one thing above all: the differences between the commander-in-chief and his commander are now so great that constructive cooperation is simply no longer possible.

But where exactly are these differences? Mainly it concerns three points: the situation at the front, mobilization and Saluzhny's public impact.