World 2023 | Where is the US going? Check out the four states where one party has a three-way governorship

Political fans closely follow the events in Washington. But if they want to see where the United States is going, the four largest states in particular should be watched: California, Florida, New York, and Texas.

They are home to more than a third of the American population and generate more than a third of the federal gross domestic product. Large states are also larger in size. They make groundbreaking policies that can spread all the way to Washington.

Ideologically, these states represent opposing views on the direction of the country and thus also embody the political division of the United States. A federalist system allows states to act as “laboratories of democracy,” as a former Supreme Court justice described them Louis Brandeis.

California and New York represent the same model, where taxes and regulation are high and the social safety net is strong.

In Florida and Texas, taxes and regulation are low.

California and New York are led by Democrats, Florida and Texas by Republicans.

In all of them, the ruling party has the “trifecta”, i.e. it holds both the governorship of the state and the majority of the upper and lower houses of the state parliament.

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California, Florida, New York and Texas may conduct political experiments.

Trend of one-party rule has spread. Today, there are 37 such three-straight states in the United States, double the number from 1992. Therefore, states can conduct political experiments according to their party that do not follow the wishes of the voters.

Texas, for example, has enacted a law, contrary to the opinion of the majority of residents, that prohibits abortion from the moment of conception without exception, also in cases of rape and incest.

Like the country as a whole, these mega-states are moving toward opposite extremes, and their policy decisions are in direct opposition to each other. California and New York are implementing progressive environmental policies, and California is even banning the sale of gasoline-powered cars starting in 2035. Meanwhile, Texas has banned financing companies that don’t support oil and gas drilling, and Florida has ruled that investments cannot be made on environmental, social responsibility or governance grounds.

There are three things to watch out for in large states.

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First, where people are moving. Migration flows have been directed away from high-tax states like New York and California and toward states with no income tax, such as Florida and Texas. Where people settle matters for the future, as population growth drives the economy and determines political influence in Washington. After the 2020 census, California and New York each lost one congressional seat, while Texas gained two and Florida gained one more.

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Second, it’s worth keeping an eye on which policy issues the states are tackling, as it often foreshadows federal debates. California, in particular, considers itself a beacon of the Democratic agenda. Along with New York, it is a pioneer in the field of access to abortion, combating climate change and supporting undocumented immigrants. In 2023, both aim for increasingly strong policies regarding the environment, social security and labor legislation.

Florida and Texas, on the other hand, see themselves as pioneers of Republican politics, and are drafting new controversial laws around social issues and elections.

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The third thing to watch is the direct dispute between the great states. An example of this is the Florida and Texas project to transport new immigrants to Democratic cities. Controversies take place on many fronts, from immigration to abortion.

2023 will see disputes between governors and attorney generals of large states. The most obvious rivals are the governor of California Gavin Newsom and the Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis. Both are running for president and hold their states as examples of what they can offer Americans, believes Ken Miller from Claremont McKenna College in California.

Voters choose what their vision of the future is.

Published in The Economist’s World 2023 magazine (The World Ahead). HS subscribers can read the entire magazine for free from here. Translation by InPress. ©2022 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved.