With Petrobras, Ibovespa starts the week up 0.12%, at 134.7 thousand points

After losing 1.41% on Friday – the biggest drop since June 7 – the Ibovespa showed a slight recovery at the start of the week, helped by the rise in iron ore in China and, in particular, by the 1% rise in oil in London and New York, bringing the commodity back from losses in the previous four sessions. Thus, with the support of shares of large banks and Petrobras (ON +1.34%, PN +1.09%) – the index rose 0.12% this Monday, the 9th, to 134,737.21 points, between a low of 134,399.45 and a high of 135,249.97 in the session, in which it opened at 134,574.01 points.

Weak, turnover was R$16.1 billion this Monday. In the month, the Ibovespa fell 0.93% – in the year, it rose 0.41%.

In addition to Petrobras, the start of the week was also positive for the shares of large banks, with highlights for Itaú (PN +0.97%) and Banco do Brasil (ON +1.25%, at the day’s high at closing). On the winning side of the Ibovespa this Monday, Ultrapar (+3.34%), MRV (+2.66%) and Metalúrgica Gerdau (+2.19%). On the opposite side, Azul (-8.33%), CVC (-4.74%) and CSN Mineração (-4.37%).

Supporting the Ibovespa at the start of the week, oil showed a correction on Monday, after last week’s sharp fall, driven upwards on Monday by the possibility of American oil companies interrupting part of their production, as a storm approaches the Louisiana region in the USA.

“Vale ended stable, without variation in the session, and Petrobras showed strength since the beginning of the day, following commodity prices, on a day of mild gains for the big banks and stabilization for the dollar at the close, down 0.15%, at R$5.5817. The Ibovespa was left aside in the session, due to the empty agenda, with few drivers available today to pull the market”, says Gabriel Mota, variable income trader at Manchester Investimentos.

The week precedes the interest rate decisions in the United States and Brazil, on the 18th, and holds new data on retail and wholesale inflation in the US.

“The market is expecting a hike in the Selic rate next week, but there is still uncertainty about the size of the increase, whether it will be 0.25 or half a percentage point,” adds the trader, also highlighting the expectation, on the same date, for the beginning of the monetary easing cycle led by the Federal Reserve in the United States – with an initial cut of 0.25 percentage points, the most likely at the moment. “From now until next week, with new economic data, it is still possible that there will be some repricing for the stock market,” says Mota.

In Monte Bravo’s assessment, the Ibovespa could surpass 145 thousand points this year, driven by the resumption of foreign capital inflows – even so, domestic fiscal risk remains a limiting factor, in the company’s view, reports journalist Maria Regina Silva, from BroadcastGrupo Estado’s real-time news system. The brokerage maintained its projection for the Ibovespa at that level for the end of 2024, but does not rule out a higher score for the year, due to the likely start of the interest rate cut in the United States.

The highlight of the domestic agenda this Monday, the Focus bulletin brought new projections in this week’s report, with an increase in the Selic rate for 2024 to 11.25% (previously 10.50%), and for 2025, to 10.25% (previously 10%), observes Hemelin Mendonça, partner at AVG Capital. “In addition, projections for IPCA 2024, to 4.30% (previously 4.26%), GDP 2024, to 2.68% (previously 2.46%), and for the exchange rate at the end of this year, to R$5.35 (previously R$5.33) also increased”, adds the specialist.