10/30/2023 – 17:49
São Paulo, 30 – The Ibovespa started the week with a negative sign, detached from New York, where gains at the close of this Monday were between 1.16% (Nasdaq) and 1.58% (Dow Jones). Here, the B3 index firmed downwards from the morning to the afternoon, with the words of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, contributing to extend the malaise of last Friday, when the comments of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the zero deficit target for the primary result in 2024 turned on a yellow light for investors.
This Monday, Haddad’s words were in line with the president’s speech, when he mentioned, among other factors, the difficulties related to the pace of federal revenue, which could affect the achievement of the target set out in the fiscal framework. Thus, the dollar and future DIs advanced in the session, pulling the Ibovespa down this Monday, even with a more favorable mood abroad. At closing, the spot dollar showed an increase of 0.67%, at R$5.0469.
In turn, the Ibovespa fell 0.68%, to 112,531.52 points, much closer to the low (112,308.50) of the late afternoon, than to the high (114,204.07) of the session, in which it left opening at 113,303.16 points. Thus, this Monday it showed the lowest closing level since June 1st, then at 110,564.66 points. In the month, which ends on Tuesday, the Ibovespa fell 3.46%, limiting the year’s increase to 2.55%. This Monday’s financial turnover was R$18.6 billion.
The behavior of the dollar and Ibovespa was inverted in relation to what was seen earlier in the morning, with both reacting favorably to the IGP-M reading, lower than expected for October. Then, with Haddad, the flow changed, becoming a buyer in the dollar and a seller in the stock index, observes a market source, given the minister’s “lack of emphasis” in relation to the words previously said by President Lula about the zeroing , or not, of the deficit next year.
On B3, among the shares with the greatest weight in the reference index, the highlight was the 0.90% increase in Vale ON, although slightly weakened at the close, which still contributed to holding the Ibovespa correction in the session, negative for the big banks, with Santander leading the way (Unit -1.29%, at the day’s low at closing). Monday was also bad for Petrobras shares (ON -0.81%, PN -1.02%), with oil still correcting excesses related to the effect of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on commodity prices .
This Monday, the drop in WTI and Brent was around 3% at the close of the day in New York (Nymex) and London (ICE), with the American reference, WTI, returning to be traded at a price level lower than the of the beginning of the conflict.
At the losing end of Ibovespa in the session, Grupo Casas Bahia (-6.25%), Magazine Luiza (-6.16%) and Braskem (-5.47%), with Usiminas (+4.49%), CCR ( +2.54%) and CSN Mineração (+2.42%) in the opposite corner.
“Unlike recent weeks, the stock market fell today due to internal issues. Haddad’s press conference, at the end of the morning, left the market reticent, which on Friday had already been stressed by Lula’s speech about meeting the fiscal target. Although it didn’t fall that much today, Haddad’s interview was poorly digested”, says Felipe Moura, partner and analyst at Finacap Investimentos, highlighting the decrease in volatility abroad this Monday, including in oil.
“In any case, the week tends to be more defensive until ‘super-Wednesday’ with the decisions on interest rates in the United States and Brazil, although it is already widely priced that the Federal Reserve should maintain the reference interest rates for there, and the Copom reduces the Selic by half a percentage point”, adds the analyst.
Abroad, data on German GDP, released in the morning, brought a smaller drop than projected for the third quarter, which was well received in European markets, notes Helder Wakabayashi, analyst at Toro Investimentos, also highlighting the increase of 2. 5% in the price of iron ore in Dalian, China. “In oil, there was a dismantling of positions that had been put in place in the event of an escalation, over the weekend, of the conflict between Israel and Hamas – which is still ongoing, but so far has not involved third parties,” he adds.
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