Alberto Fernandez, who ruled out running for re-election as Argentine president last Friday, never imagined that reconciling with Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-2015), after a decade of fighting, would take him to the top of power, but not that the political tensions with his “old friend”, added to a questioned economic management in difficult times, would mark his first and only term.
(In context: The president of Argentina, Alberto Fernández, will not seek re-election)
“We received a country in debt, in recession, in default, with high poverty and inflation (…) We had to face a global pandemic, a war and, at this time, the consequences of a brutal drought. It is clear that we did not achieve everything we set out to do. On December 10, I will award the presidential sash to whoever has been legitimately elected at the polls.”, assured the 64-year-old president in the video that he uploaded to his Twitter announcing his decision.
And it is that the panorama for Fernández cannot be more suffocating. Less than eight months after leaving the Casa Rosada, Argentina is going through an economic crisis, with very high inflation (7.7% in March and 104% annualized) and a negative image of about 70 percent, according to a recent survey by the Polyarchy consultant.
“Alberto Fernández is one of the least popular presidents that Argentina has had in its democratic history. Added to this is the fact that the government’s economic policy failed in terms of controlling inflation, a historic drought and a security crisis that is running rampant. In practice, we are talking about a very complex breeding ground that, if the political situation deteriorates even further, can have very negative effects.”, Matías Franchini, PhD in international relations and academic at the Universidad del Rosario, tells EL TIEMPO.
kirchnerista pressure
Fernández accused the wear generated by his strong disagreements with the vice president Cristina Kirchner. A combination that many warned would be explosive since, in 2019, the former president announced it as her presidential candidate, with her as the campaign formula.
Convinced that only a united Peronism could unseat the then president, the liberal Mauricio Macri, Fernández did not hesitate to iron out the rough edges that led him to abruptly leave the Kirchner government in 2008 and took over the leadership of the country.
However, from the beginning of his term, Alberto was pointed out by the opposition as Cristina’s “puppet”. Something that, especially, became evident, in the economic decisions.
Despite the fact that Fernández tightened the restrictions on buying dollars, he failed to tame inflation. Furthermore, the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refinance the 44.5 billion dollar loan granted during Macri’s term generated enormous tensions with Kirchnerism, very critical of the organization, to the point that the country saw three Economy ministers parade in less than a month.
The president’s announcement was something not so unexpected, taking into account what happened in the last 48 hours, where the inmates in the Government were agitated, and there were rumors of the departure of Massa
And although things stabilized with the current minister of said portfolio, Sergio Massa, just this week Massa threatened to resign, at a time when the IMF has said that it will not accept making the program more flexible, unless the Government accelerates the devaluation .
A daunting task, since the increase in the price of the basket has left families with serious difficulties to feed themselves, in a country where about 40% of people live in poverty. In fact, since the country fell victim to runaway hyperinflation in the early 1990s, the situation had never reached such a critical level.
“From the Government itself, where there are some ministers who answer to Cristina, systematic pressure arose then for Alberto to give up his re-election,” Franchini explains.
In statements to Efe, Mariel Fornoni, director of the Management and Fit consultancy, assured that Fernández’s chances of re-election were “very low”, and that he simply kept his decision in the air to have “some power” until the elections. “But, it seems to me, that the economic context put too much pressure on him,” Fornoni stresses, referring to the exchange turbulence registered in recent days, attributed in the press, in part, to the internal dispute within the ruling party.
“The president’s announcement was something not so unexpected, taking into account what happened in the last 48 hours, where the inmates in the Government were agitated, and there were rumors of Massa’s departure,” said the analyst. politician Patricio Giusto.
In his opinion, Massa pressured to “generate certainty” and “apparently”, the president’s promise so that Massa would not leave office was to announce his resignation from re-election, trying to “pave the way” to order the official internal and transmitting “more certainty to the markets”.
Peronist replacement?
Upon learning of Fernández’s electoral resignation, visible faces of the ruling Frente de Todos gave their opinion, among them Foreign Minister Santiago Cafiero, close to the president, who considered his decision a “historical responsibility”, and the Minister of the Interior, Eduardo ‘Wado’ de Pedro, one of the most related to the vice president and another possible presidential candidate. “It is a necessary step to begin ordering Peronism,” he declared.
For the political consultant Enrique Zuleta Puceiro, this decision “opens a new stage” in the political landscape. “There is an opportunity for the political forces to shuffle. That is the feeling that each other must be feeling: We have gotten into a quagmire, let’s start again. “But if there is not a strong component of innovation and commitment to coming out of the crisis, things could be worse,” he warned.
Franchini added in this regard that “the resignation of Fernandez It is not a point of union but a starting point for the electoral reorganization of Peronism. The pro-government coalition could be facing an electoral beating in the next elections, it is even possible that they will not even enter the second round of the elections, which would be a resounding failure.
With a Cristina Kirchner who publicly gave up seeking the presidency or any other elective position after last December the court sentenced her to six years in prison and political disqualification for corruption, the waters for the opposition are not very clear either.
Like Kirchner, former President Mauricio Macri also withdrew from opting for the presidential candidacy in the opposition coalition Juntos por el Cambio (center-right).
The mayor of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodríguez Larreta He has already begun his campaign for the primaries, as has the former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich.
It is speculated that Sergio Massa, you could launch your application if you manage to improve the economic situation, especially inflation. The ambassador in Brazil, Daniel Scioli, the governor of Chaco, Jorge Capitanich, and the social leader Juan Grabois also expressed their willingness to run.
Emerging in this electoral process appears the deputy javier mileia 52-year-old “libertarian” economist and politician who wields a strong right-wing and anti-system discourse and would occupy third place in the presidential election, according to polls.
The question that remains is whether Fernández will support a dolphin or declare himself dispensable. In the environment of the president, they indicate that they would like someone from their core to be the candidate, “although it is difficult to become the head of anyone’s campaign” for next August 13, when the political parties must carry out the so-called mandatory primary elections (Paso). .
What is certain is that in the coming months the country will experience an agonizing procession of candidates who will promise the impossible to convince them that they have the formula to get out of the crisis and receive the presidential sash from the crestfallen President Fernández next 10 December, the exact day that Argentina celebrates 40 years of democracy.
STREPHANY ECHVARRÍA
INTERNATIONAL EDITOR
TIME
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