We all know that earthquakes cannot be predicted. However, scientists from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a National Seismic Risk Model, according to which California has a high probability of suffering an earthquake. Likewise, it ensures that most of the country also faces that risk.
Around 50 specialist scientists and engineers created a map to identify by color which are the areas where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur, drawing on seismic survey knowledge, historical geological data and the latest data collection technologies.
Based on the above, specialists have been able to calculate which areas are most vulnerable to earthquakes and the magnitude of the shocks that could occur, being California a state with a high level of risk.
Tremors in California would not be a surprise. However, according to the research, there is the possibility of greater shaking in seismically active regions of the country that, precisely, include the Golden State and also Alaska.
The report states that in California has a 95 percent chance of experiencing an earthquake because it is located on a series of faults, that is, where the tectonic plates come together. The largest of them, and the most dangerous, is the San Andreas fault that crosses the state from north to south and delimits the North American plate from the Pacific plate.
If the fault were to rupture, the implications would be catastrophic, as it passes through huge urban centers in Los Angeles, the second most populated city in the United States, and San Diego. In fact, in 1906 a devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake was recorded that destroyed much of San Francisco.
Much of the United States at risk of earthquake
It's not just California that has a high chance of experiencing a damaging earthquake. The National Seismic Risk Model also warns that 75 percent of the United States territory is at risk.
According to the model, specialists have managed to identify almost 500 additional faults to those already known, which could produce a strong earthquake. In fact, they concluded that there is potential for a damaging earthquake to occur along the central and northeastern atlantic coastal corridor, which would include damage to the cities of Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York and Boston.
It should be noted that they reached the conclusion through the tool that was requested by Congress with the intention of helping and mitigating the effects of the earthquakes in the most vulnerable communities. “This is a multi-year collaborative effort between federal, state, local government and the private sector. “The new seismic risk model represents a fundamental achievement to improve public safety”said Mark Petersen, a USGS geophysicist and lead author of the study.
Through the conclusions it is expected that there will be changes in the future of structural and building design to adequately plan construction in the highest danger areas in the United States.
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