That donald trump is a favorite to win the nomination Republican Party Looking ahead to the elections next November, it was something that was already known and all the polls indicated. But this Monday's caucus in Iowa, the first stop in the long primary system that exists in USA to choose a candidate, confirmed that the former president More than a competition it will be a coronation.
Although the number of voters who went to the polls was pyrrhic—about 100,000 people—and many question whether Iowa, a very rural and largely white state, is representative of the rest of the country, Trump's victory was so overwhelming that, in practice, he probably closed all avenues for an eventual challenge from his rivals.
(Also read: Ron DeSantis abandons presidential race: 'Majority wants to give Trump a chance')
The former president was preferred by 51 percent of voters, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (21 percent), who withdrew from the presidential race this Sunday, January 21; former governor of North Carolina Nikki Haley (19 percent), and businessman Viveck Ramaswamy (8 percent).
After the results, Ramaswamy – who was called mini Trump due to the similarity of his tone and proposals with those of the former president – announced his withdrawal from the race, which will further strengthen his position, since it is presumed that Trump will inherit those votes.
The eyes, therefore, are now on the primary this Tuesday in New Hampshire.
Even from the Iowa caucus, Haley, the former governor, had begun to rise in the polls and was emerging as the anti-Trump alternative in the electoral process.. But his third-place finish in the caucus deflated his supporters. The poor performance, in part, is attributed to the former president's attacks in recent weeks against Haley, whom he perceived as the only threat to his aspirations.
And he did it using a script from the past. but that apparently continues to resonate among Republicans. In 2008, when Democrats were leaning toward Barack Obama, Trump began questioning his ancestry, claiming that perhaps he wasn't even American, and that his father came from Africa.
Trump's attacks on Nikki Haley
Haley, whom the former president appointed ambassador to the UN during his administration, is the daughter of immigrants from India. Now, Trump suggests that he may not even be able to be president of the United States, since her parents were not president when she was born in the United States. Which is not true because the only condition to be president of the country is to have been born in United States territory.
Still, the mere suspicion has made many think. The former president has also begun to refer to Haley by her first name – Nimrata Randhawa – with the clear intention of making her look foreign. In an anti-immigration environment like the one that prevails in the country, especially in the Republican Party, it is a detail that undoubtedly weighs.
Haley, of course, could still spring a surprise. In the latest average of polls from the 538 portal, Trump appears first with 47 percent of voting intentions, followed by Haley with 34 percent and a very distant DeSantis with 5 percent. A last-minute rally by Haley that brings her closer to Trump – or an unexpected victory – could turn the race upside down and open the race to a fight between the two factions of the party – Trumpism and anti-Trumpism.
But if the results hold and Trump once again takes 50 percent of the vote, the race, de facto, could end this Tuesday.
No one expects Haley to retire. But his participation would be more to win a second place that allows him to position himself for a position in a future Trump administration. Which would change the dynamic because rather than moving away from the former president or attacking him, he would most likely approach his positions.
In fact, many are already talking about the possibility that Haley could end up being their vice presidential ticket. Since Trump fought to the death with his former vice president, Mike Pence, he has yet to choose a candidate to accompany him in the general elections.. And Haley, on paper, she has it all. Woman, daughter of immigrants, young, with more moderate positions and antidote to conquer the sector of the Republican party that does not yet support him.
“For Trump this is like a dream come true. In just two days he eliminates all of his rivals without wearing himself out and in the process he gets an option for the vice presidency with which he can start campaigning now,” says David Hopkin, professor of political science at Boston University. .
Looking back, this is a perfect scenario because instead of a long battle between several candidates, which usually ends up weakening the winner and generating fissures within the party, trump can dedicate its entire economic arsenal and campaign events to attacking Joe Bidenits most likely contender in November.
Could there be a fracture in the Republican Party?
Of course, the path for Trump, although it looks easy for the primary elections, is not clear in the general elections. Although the 91 criminal charges he faces in four different judicial proceedings have apparently not made a dent among his supporters, they could weigh down the road.
In exit polls in Iowa, three in ten Republicans said a conviction against him would prevent him from being president. And six in ten who voted for Haley said they would not vote for Trump in the general election.
Numbers that are worrying because the former president needs the support not only of his party but also of the independents.
We must remember that Trump arrived at the White House in 2016 despite having lost the popular vote (he obtained only 48 percent of the vote) and that in 2020 he was widely defeated by Biden by more than eight million votes and in very Republican states such as Arizona and Georgia.
And no one knows at this point what effect their judicial entanglements will have when it comes time to make decisions or the impact of a conviction or acquittal on any of the pending processes.
But, above all, how President Biden would fit into all of this. Under normal conditions and given all the negative things that Trump has, the current president should have no problems winning re-election. But his administration has been plagued by problems – particularly high inflation – and remains wildly unpopular even among his own party.
Biden currently has popularity ratings that are below 40 percent and in simulated confrontations with Trump he loses in most polls.
In other words, there is still a lot of fabric to be cut and the electoral outlook in the United States remains murky.
But, for Trump, at least as far as the primary election process is concerned, his path looks more than clear.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
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