lthe US intelligence community This Tuesday he offered a gloomy prognosis for those who hoped for a return to democracy in Venezuela during the next presidential elections.
In its latest annual report on threats to national security (Annual Threat Assessment 2024), the National Intelligence Directorate (DNI) maintains that the president Nicolas Maduro He will remain in power given that he controls all institutions including those that will be in charge of the electoral process.
“Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will maintain a solid grip on power (into the future) and is unlikely to lose the 2024 presidential election due to his control of the state institutions that influence the electoral process and his determination in doing so. use of that power“says the document, which was delivered to the US Congress.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will maintain a solid grip on power (going forward) and is unlikely to lose the 2024 presidential election due to his control of state institutions
Annually the DNI, which heads all the country's intelligence agencies, presents this evaluation to the country's leaders to guide them in their decision-making.
In its report for this year, the DNI also states that the opposition holds few public positions that allow them to exert any influence and highlights that they have generally been divided.
He also says that the support of China, Russia and Iran for Maduro has helped him evade the sanctions imposed by the United States and that they would be reimposed in a month if Maduro fails to comply with the Barbados agreement, which he signed with the opposition in year past.
“So far, the regime has banned leading opposition candidates from holding public office, restricted media coverage of opposition politicians, and placed close allies in the National Electoral Council to ensure Maduro's victory while simultaneously try to avoid blatant electoral fraud,” the report states.
It also dedicates a section to the issue of migration and concludes that the exodus of Venezuelans to countries in the region and the United States will continue throughout next year.
“More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2017, of which 6.5 million live in Latin America and the Caribbean. Venezuelan emigration to the region and the United States is likely to remain high over the next year , as the lack of economic opportunities is likely to persist. More than 80 percent of Venezuelans have incomes below the poverty line and low levels of economic growth would be insufficient to lift the majority out of poverty or mitigate the factors that drive migration,” the report says when describing the situation.
The 41-page report identifies China and Russia as the main threats to the country, as well as the growing risk that the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalates into a regional war.
“Israel will face increasing international pressure due to the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, and Iranian-backed attacks endanger stability in Lebanon, Iraq, the (Persian) Gulf and the Red Sea. The risk that escalation leading to interstate conflict, intentional or not, remains high,” the report says in another section.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
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