Why did China's population shrink for the second year in a row and what does it mean?

China's population shrank in 2023 for the second year in a row, according to official data published this Wednesday, which shows an acceleration of the demographic crisis in this country after more than six decades of strong growth.

The cost of education, the distancing of young people towards marriage or the educational and labor integration of women caused the birth rate to decline in
China, whose population shrank in 2022 for the first time since 1960.

Overtaken in the last year by India as the most populous country in the world, China has gone from applying strict birth control policies to trying to boost it without much success with subsidies and pro-fertility propaganda.

What do the figures revealed this Wednesday say and why is the birth rate worrying?

What do the figures say about the birth rate in China?

China reported this Wednesday that its population will contract by 2.08 million people in 2023 and that the number of births was 9.02 million, the lowest since records began, which marks a new normal of demographic decline in the Asian power.

According to data published by the National Statistics Office (ONE), China closed 2023 with 1,409.67 million inhabitants, 0.14% less than in 2022, the year in which the population had already decreased by 850,000 people, marking the first decline since 1961, when the failure of the Great Leap Forward industrialization policy caused large-scale famines.

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The calculation only concerns individuals of Chinese nationality who live on the mainland, excluding foreigners and inhabitants of the semi-autonomous territories of Hong Kong and Macau.

“In 2023, the number of births was 9.02 million, with a birth rate of 6.39 per thousand inhabitants,” explained the statistical body.

The Asian giant thus faces the challenge of reversing the negative trend in birth rates, which has been declining for seven consecutive years.despite the efforts of both national and local authorities to try to increase it.

Why is there a demographic crisis in that country?

China ended its strict one-child policy in 2016, imposed in the 1980s for fear of overpopulation. and as of 2021 it allows couples to have up to three children.

But this has not managed to reverse the demographic decline of a country that has long made its extensive workforce an engine of economic momentum.

If in the 1960s the average number of children per woman was greater than 7, in 2022 it fell to a disturbing 1.05, he told the AFP independent demographer He Yafu.

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Chinese experts attributed the low number of births in 2023 to factors such as the pandemic, the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age and the delay of marriage and childbearing among young Chinese.

There are also aspects such as the high cost of raising a child or the growing distrust of the younger generations towards the institution of marriage, a mandatory step in China before procreating. In addition, the increasing number of women pursuing higher education has delayed the age of first pregnancy.

According to a survey conducted by the China Population and Development Research Center, The ideal number of children for women of childbearing age fell from 1.95 in 2017 to 1.86 in 2022, and the number of children they intend to have fell from 1.77 to 1.74.

However, the center's director, He Dan, assured local media that “most of the factors that cause the decline in women choosing to have children or get married can be adjusted through support policies,” among which she cited the reduction of expenses, alleviating anxiety about raising children and promoting female employment.

Furthermore, numerous specialists have pointed out the “lack of coordination” of policies between different levels and regions as reasons for their lack of effectiveness: “This system should focus on equality and be consistent across the country,” said Yuan Xin, deputy director of the Chinese Population Association at Nankai University.

Why is the decline in births worrying?

The truth is that the situation worries the country, since the vice president of the China Economists Forum Research Institute, Lin Caiyi, warned that the decrease in population implies a reduction in the workforce, which “will inevitably bring slower economic growth.”

But the decline also creates social challenges. In China, tradition forces the younger generations to take care of their elderly relatives to a greater degree than what occurs in Western societies.

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Most couples now consist of two adults who are only children and who would be responsible for caring for their four elderly parents. To offset this burden, authorities this week presented a multibillion-dollar plan to meet the needs of senior services.

The expert Lin Caiyi, quoted by the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post, also pointed out that The pressure on social security expenses “increases year after year as the population ages”, which also causes alarm.

It is estimated that around the year 2035 there will be more than 400 million people over 60 in the Asian countrywhich will represent more than 30% of the population
China.

Can the crisis be reversed?

For now, no major changes in China's demographic trends are expected in the short term: Professor at the Center for Population and Development Policy Studies at Fudan University Peng Xizhe predicted that the population of
China “will continue to decline” in the coming years and the annual number of births will hardly exceed 10 million again.

Independent demographer He Yafu assures that “the trend of population decline in China is basically impossible to reverse.” “Even if fertility is encouraged, it is impossible for the fertility rate to increase to the generational replacement rate, because now the younger generations have changed their conception of fertility and generally do not want to have more children,” said this analyst.

To stop this decline, this expert calls for more family aid, solutions for childcare or advancing children's access to daycare.

Encouraging immigration to stem demographic decline, he says, “is not viable” because “in the coming decades, the Chinese population will decline by several hundred million people.”

This would involve bringing “hundreds of millions of people” when “the vast majority of Chinese currently oppose immigration and the authorities are very restrictive in this matter,” he noted.

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On the contrary, Analyst Yuan estimated that in 2024, negative population growth could be alleviated to some extent. due to the Chinese's preference for having offspring in the Year of the Dragon, which begins in February, and a rebound in births after the end of the pandemic and China's strict 'zero covid' policy.

In addition, the demographer of the Population and Development Research Center Li Yue showed some optimism in the face of “some positive factors” despite the fact that “the long-term population decline trend has already become an established fact.”

The declining data on the Chinese population, in any case, consolidate the UN projections from last year, which for the first time anticipated that India would become the most populous country in the world with some 1,430 million inhabitants, after having quadrupled its population. in the last 70 years.

*With AFP and EFE